Figure It This Way

DFL petty poobah – a former DFL state legislator, in fact – on a state politics discussion forum:

As Minnesotans, we can be proud of our election system.

Take 100 random Minnesotans off the street.

Ask them “To the best of your knowledge, how did the canvassing board and the secretary of state arrive at the conclusion that Norm Colemn’s 200-odd vote margin of victory on election night is now a 200-odd vote Franken lead?”

Take the correct answers, and express them as a percentage.

That’s how proud we can be.

Any bets?

Hint: I, who follow this stuff as a political junkie, have no idea.

Posted

January 7, 2009

Campaign ’08, Minnesota Politics

Mitch Berg

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Comments

67 responses to “Figure It This Way”

Terry

January 7, 2009

I wrote:
“while insisting that an election that produced a victory for your candidate by a miniscule percentage (so far) should not be considered fraudulent.”
And RickDFl responded:
“If you aware of fraudulent votes, feel free to file evidence in the election contest. But it will and should take more than paranoid delusions to undo an election. ”
Note that I said nothing about fraudulent votes. I said the victory may be fraudulent.
A election may be won by fraudulent means without ever a fraudulent vote being cast by a number of means.
I weary of telling you this, RickDFL, but you really have to work on that reading comprehension and rhetoric thing. I will most likely not make the argument that you want me to.
Mr. D

January 7, 2009

Another one for people to wrap their minds around:

How many people who voted in Minnesota live at a Mailboxes Etc.? The mail surely gets picked up there.

I don’t know if Franken and/or other DFL operatives gamed the system. I do know there are a lot of ways to game it, though. And I also know that if Coleman were ahead by 225 votes right now, various DFL types would be shouting from the housetops much in the same way that we’ve been treated to the “Selected not elected” serenade for the past 8 years.

Franken’s gonna get the seat. I think we all know that. The larger issue is ensuring that the sort of games that have taken place in this cycle don’t happen again in the future. Either way right now, the winner receives a poisoned chalice. And other than having a little schadenfreude festival, it doesn’t help the chortlers, those of us who are disgruntled, or anyone else, if you have a sitting senator who is despised by over half the electorate. And that’s what we’re going to get at the end of this process.
RickDFL

January 7, 2009

Terry:
“This is clearly not the same as “auditing the voter rolls of each precinct every so often, figure out who is registered at a nonexistent addres””

I will leave that to the readers. I assume BB wanted to check “every so often”, not to re-audit an already audited address, but to audit the addresses of those registered since the last audit. If you can not register at a non-existent address there is no reason to check the address of registered voters to see if still they exist (except for the demolished building scenario which I concede requires a different process).

“Note that I said nothing about fraudulent votes”.
Then who wrote this, “you are in the unenviable position of defending a voting system which, by your own lights, produces a miniscule percentage of fraudulent votes”?
RickDFL

January 7, 2009

Mr. D:
“How many people who voted in Minnesota live at a Mailboxes Etc.? The mail surely gets picked up there.”
The mail yes, but I am pretty sure not your MN Drivers License or your utility bill. I think that is why those are acceptable proof of address, but not other bills or mail. Since you can not get either with a Mail Box Ect. address, you could not register to vote there.

“I do know there are a lot of ways to game it, though.”
Having participated in the recount, I was impressed with just the opposite. If you think someone gamed the system, file a complaint.
DiscordianStooj

January 7, 2009

Wait. I found some evidence of Coleman’s attempt to steal the election.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/37219649.html
Terry

January 8, 2009

RickDFL wrote:-
“I assume BB wanted to check “every so often”, not to re-audit an already audited address, but to audit the addresses of those registered since the last audit.”
An address is not ‘audited’ by sending a letter to it and seeing if it is returned.

“The mail yes, but I am pretty sure not your MN Drivers License or your utility bill.”
I get all my utility bills at a PO box. Also my DL, property tax info, etc. Many people have these things sent to their work address, or a trusted place they can pick up mail. I know a guy who has lived in Hawaii for almost thirty years. He still has an Oregon driver license. He uses his parents’ Portland address to get it.

““Note that I said nothing about fraudulent votes”.
Then who wrote this, “you are in the unenviable position of defending a voting system which, by your own lights, produces a miniscule percentage of fraudulent votes”? ”

The entire sentence I wrote was :
“RickDFL, you are in the unenviable position of defending a voting system which, by your own lights, produces a miniscule percentage of fraudulent votes while insisting that an election that produced a victory for your candidate by a miniscule percentage (so far) should not be considered fraudulent.”
The point being that if, in an election where two million votes are cast and the winner is decided by less than, say, 500 votes, it takes only a miniscule amount of fraud — overcounting or undercounting — to determine who is the victor. You, RickDFL, think that a utility bill is enough ID to use to vote, and simply being able to name an address which does not bounce back mail is proof enough to register to vote.
I will let whoever reads this draw their own conclusions about your concern for fair, free elections — and your opinion that Franken has won a fair and free recount.
DiscordianStooj

January 8, 2009

if you have a sitting senator who is despised by over half the electorate. And that’s what we’re going to get at the end of this process.

Well, that would have happened either way, and even if either had won by 3 or 4 points.
angryclown

January 8, 2009

Terry blathered: “Hay, AC, the SC that upheld Bush’s position in 2000 was bi-partisan. Time to admit you’re a loser and move on!”

Well, they split 5-4, if you remember Terry. But Angryclown has certainly moved on from that.

President Obama. President Barack Obama. President Barack HU-frikken-SSEIN Obama….
Mr. D

January 8, 2009

Well, that would have happened either way, and even if either had won by 3 or 4 points.

My point exactly, Disco Stoo. The problem here is that we are going to have a plurality senator, and one voted in with then a 1/10th of 1% margin. A senator that wins a majority has won outright. With a runoff, one of them gets over half the electorate’s support. I wouldn’t like Franken any more, but I’d have to respect the wishes of my fellow Minnesotans if he won the runoff. It won’t happen in this cycle, but it needs to going forward. I don’t like Senator Hotdish much either, but there’s no doubt that she has an unfettered right to her seat. Nor was there any doubt about Wellstone, Dayton, Grams, etc.

And Terry,

Thank you for demolishing RickDFL yet again on the Mail Boxes Etc. point. And let me add two more ways to game the system — same day registration and letting someone else vouch for you. Again, I don’t know if any fraud resulted from that system. But it could and if something can happen in the political world, assuming it did is the way to bet.
RickDFL

January 8, 2009

Terry:
“I get all my utility bills at a PO box. Also my DL, property tax info, etc.”
I can’t say for HI, but in MN (call 651-297-3298 to confirm), while you can have the DL mailed to a PO Box, the DL must list your resident address. A PO Box does not count as a resident address. I bet the same holds for a utility bill, because it must list the address at which service is being billed. So when using either to register to vote, you would have to register at your resident address.

There is actually a whole section on the MN Voter Reg card that asks if your mailing address is different from your resident address. It is a real pain in the ass when you try to match a mailing list to the voter file.

“An address is not ‘audited’ by sending a letter to it and seeing if it is returned.” If the address does not exit, the letter will be returned. Seems a sufficient check whether the address exists, to me. Do you want the County to send a staff member out to physically inspect the location?

“You, RickDFL, think that a utility bill is enough ID to use to vote”
Not exactly. You need a current utility bill, plus a Photo ID, plus the last 4 of your SSN. Then you need to sign a pledge that makes it a felony to vote illegally.

“it takes only a miniscule amount of fraud”
Then provide some evidence of actual fraud. So far the only known case is the sex offender who voted for Coleman.

Mr. D:
“I don’t know if any fraud resulted from that system. But it could and if something can happen in the political world, assuming it did is the way to bet.”
OK. Someone could hack into the SOS voter file and create a massive number of fraudulent registrations. They could even create whole Ptomkin villages staffed when necessary with fake voters. Should we bet that is actually happening? Should we just stop holding elections?
Mr. D

January 8, 2009

OK. Someone could hack into the SOS voter file and create a massive number of fraudulent registrations.

Yep. But no one thinks that happened.

They could even create whole Ptomkin villages staffed when necessary with fake voters. Should we bet that is actually happening?

Setting up a Potemkin village wouldn’t work. Adding a few names here and there? Probably happens. And it wouldn’t surprise me if both sides did some of that. If we can do something about it, we should.

Should we just stop holding elections?

Now that your side has the result you like, that probably sounds pretty appealing. But no, we’ll continue to have elections. And if we can take relatively easy steps to prevent election-day fraud (which, note well, I am not ascribing to the canvassing board), we ought to do it.
RickDFL

January 8, 2009

Mr. D:

“a few . . .here and there. . .Probably. . .it wouldn’t surprise me. . .both sides . . some . . .If we can do something about it, we should. . . .if we can take relatively easy steps to prevent election-day fraud (which, note well, I am not ascribing to the canvassing board), we ought to do it.”

Somebody had a tasty bowl of milquetoast this morning.
DiscordianStooj

January 8, 2009

With a runoff, one of them gets over half the electorate’s support.

Ask Mitch about IRV.

Maybe it will be in place in time for the next gubernatorial election. Hopefully Pawlenty can get those IP votes. Or will it be Coleman running this time.
Bike Bubba

January 9, 2009

For reference, a true audit is not just a verification of voter records as they come in, as Rick DFL suggests. A true audit verifies all the data, not just new data. What I would suggest is to go, address by address, checking homeownership and tax records to

1. Eliminate voter registrations from those who have moved.

2. Eliminate voter registrations from places of business.

3. Eliminate voter registrations from nonexistent addresses.

4. Eliminate voter registrations when far too many people are registered at the same address.

One starts with Oracle, continues with tax records, and if necessary, yes, you do go door to door, especially in precincts where vote totals change a lot and suspicious behavior is reported. In a world where ACORN is said to have submitted hundreds of thousands of fraudulent registrations, it’s the least we can do to preserve the integrity of our elections.
RickDFL

January 9, 2009

Bike Bubba:

Once again you just have no idea what you are talking about.

“address by address, checking homeownership and tax records to”

Lots of people own a home without living there. Lots of people live at a residence without owning it. There is no government list of people who live at an address. It is a free country, people can live wherever they want without telling the government. Pretty much the same with tax records.
Bike Bubba

January 9, 2009

Rick

Actually, it’s you that doesn’t know what you’re talking about. Ever heard of the homestead tax reduction for property taxes? Homestead tax on the property plus names of the owners give you most of the probable voters at a given home. No homestead? Probably not eligible voters there.

Rentals? Well, for starters, probably 25% of voters at best, but again, when you search the databases, you probably don’t have five voters in an efficiency apartment, do you? You send those notes to every renter, see what bounces back. Problem solved.

And yes, a bit of door to door in some neighborhoods would be appropriate, too, as well as some prosecutions for the ACORN clowns.

Again, I’m suggesting really only testing the worst offenders in the case of poll irregularities, plus perhaps 1-5% of other precincts, each year to start figuring out how deep the problem of duplicate/expired/fraudulent registrations might be.

Will it solve every problem? Of course not, but it would be a good start. Another good place to start; equire ID to vote and make state IDs free (but not drivers licenses).
RickDFL

January 9, 2009

“Probably not eligible voters there.”
Baloney. Children living at home, spouses not on the mortgage, partners living together, casual roommates, and lots of other people fall into this category. And what will you do to the people you suspect or not eligible based on your vague intuitions about their resident status?

“I’m suggesting really only testing the worst offenders in the case of poll irregularities”
Well given that there was exactly one poll irregularity in 2008, there is no need to test anything.