November 01, 2004
300-238
Here's my prediction, in glorious surreal color. Bear in mind, I put no weight on my own predictions whatsoever - but it's an entertaining diversion.
The wierd thing is, except for Hawaii, I don't think I'm being especially overoptimistic in making this prediction.
I figure Bush will capture two from the troika of MN, WI and IA; WI seems the least likely to me right now.
As to Ohio, I'm taking Hugh's word for it - with good reason, I think.
Senate: GOP picks up two seats.
House: GOP picks up six.
Court cases embroil at least two states.
Violence will break out in at least a few places, with one fatality as a group of Democrats beats a Republican to death.
That is all.
Posted by Mitch at November 1, 2004 02:24 PM | TrackBack
I only hope you're right. I nearly died from the stress of the post-election events last time around. Aside from the general well-being of the country being at stake, I selfishly need a decisive victory or else I'll be one big walking ulcer of anxiety until it's over.
As I told my friend last time, "I went to sleep with a huge smile on my face and woke up in hell." Fortunately, Gore's ridiculous legal maneuverings weren't enough to defeat the president (with a little help from the legal eagles at Baker Botts - I used to work there as a legal secretary and my desk was was within feet of Irv Terrell's office - so thrilling seeing him fight on behalf of President Bush!)
I can't wait for Wednesday morning!
Posted by: Laura J. at November 1, 2004 01:57 PMVery few electoral predictions seem to agree on Pennsylvania, where I have lived all of my life. I wish I could feel as optimistic about PA as you do about MN. But it is a wierd state (or Commonwealth, to use the proper title). This is the land of moderate Democrats and liberal Republicans. In 2000 we re-elected Rick Santorum, but we also gave our electoral college votes to Al Gore. Two years ago, we got "Fast Eddie" Rendell of Clinton-era DNC infamy as Governor. Hopefully that does not forebode PA going for Kerry this year.
If it does, I might need the phone the NARN on Saturday and apologize for Pennsylvania.
Posted by: Dave in Pgh. at November 1, 2004 02:45 PMI feel much less confident than you my friend. As I waited in line for over an hour to do my civic duty on Saturday, I was overwhelmed by the number of, if I may use the word, ignorant, self-centered entities trilling about how important it was to get their man elected so we could get back to the good economy days. I certainly wasn't going to change any minds, but pity us the short sightedness of our masses who always seem to put self before the good of the all. The best I could do was make darn sure my wife and family all vote--not to say that will help the 'good guys' but at least they did it.
Posted by: fingers at November 1, 2004 03:33 PMMitch-I like your map. I am strangely serene today. Bush wins Wisconsin too. Pennsylvania's Republicans will be Kerry-mandered by the DNC fraud machine.
Posted by: Grotmonster at November 1, 2004 04:28 PMSomething that bugs me with these maps, no matter who puts them out, is that they don't seem to calculate that Maine and Nebraska don't give out their electors in a complete block...
Something to consider.
Posted by: Eric Anondson at November 1, 2004 04:44 PMBush 270 - 268 in a squeeker. Loses PA and FL or OH but sweeps MN, WI, and IA. Hey, it's as good as anybody's guess and makes for good TV.
Posted by: Craig Westover at November 1, 2004 06:44 PMMy map...
It's different than yours.
But I'll say this--I think reality will be close to you, or close to me, not close to the 269-269 monstrosity that Slate is currently claiming.
Posted by: Jeff Fecke at November 1, 2004 09:26 PMAn 11th hour 59 minute plea. Don't make me serve under Commander in Chief Kerry!
Posted by: Jarhead at November 2, 2004 01:27 AM