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October 17, 2006

The Minnesota Poll PR Release

King guts the latest Minnesota Poll.

The beef:

  • Bachmann's favorable unfavorable ratings are 44/36, with 9% not knowing the name; Wetterling is at 56/35, with 1% not knowing her. Bachmann's advertising therefore has room to make ground, and Wetterling may be capped on her support.
  • Along the same lines, # 56% of survey respondents said they had a "great deal" of interest in the race as opposed to 35% who had spent a "fair amount". 8% said they had only a little interest, but somehow are still considered likely voters.
  • Comparing demographics of the poll (see the StarTribune's pretty pictures) with the 2000 Census would indicate either many more college graduates vote or respond to polls, or that the sample has too many relative to the district. The poll reported 39% of respondents being either college graduates or having post-graduate education. The Census in 2000 reports less than a quarter of area residents over 25 years old have earned a bachelor's degree or more.
  • And lastly, 58% of respondents were female. In all previous polls that Jeff and Larry mention, there has been a female advantage in the poll for Wetterling, so the more females in your sample the more likely you'll find a Wetterling advantage. The Sept. SurveyUSA poll was 49% female, the October SurveyUSA poll was 50% female, and the Majority Watch robopoll was 53% female. Now why hasn't anyone noted this? The only way this can be representative is if you thought that if the election were held today, 58% of voters would be female. Why would you believe that?
Read the whole thing.

Posted by Mitch at October 17, 2006 07:19 PM | TrackBack
Comments

You got a nod from Hewitt tonight on the 58% female thing. A STrib poll skewed for a predetermined outcome?
I'm Shocked! Shocked, I tell you!

Posted by: Kermit at October 17, 2006 07:43 PM

What I think is a joke is that they meke these bold predictions based on the input of 506 people. How many folks live in the 6th CD? 200,000 or so at least and they believe this is an accurate picture?

Posted by: Chad at October 17, 2006 09:30 PM

Same Mitch, same b*tch.

Mitch, you seem to get bent over a barrel about a decidedly biased poll, but have no issues rendering decidedly biased opinion and even more with ignoring bias on the right.

You claim the Strib does the acts biasedly, rail against that bias and yet have previously said openly promoting a biased view is the way all politics and media should be. Doesn't that make your complaint not against bias, but instead that the Strib and Faux news simply aren't advertising they speak with a forked and deceptive tongue, while you admit you do?

Klobuchar said it well, "How can you fix a problem you won't even admit exits?" In your case, if you won't admit to the bias on the right, how can you expect to correct bias on the left? If openly discussing a topic precludes any recognition of problems on both sides, no solution will ever be found.

Posted by: ted at October 17, 2006 09:38 PM

Hey Chad, it's called statistical projection, it's hardly rocket science and it's done all the time with far smaller relative samples projecting population make-up for the entire country on polls sampling 1000 or 5000 people.

Mitch's complaint is not in the sample size, but that the make-up of the poll is skewed, which it most definetely is.

The Strib's MN poll is among the most skewed in the country. OTOH, Fox's polls are barely better.

Posted by: ted at October 17, 2006 09:42 PM

58% were women... and somehow that translated into the polling being skewed toward Wetterling...

I would normally question the connection till I saw this - from Bachmann's campaign appearance the other night...

"...And from there, my husband said “Now you need to go and get post-doctorate degree in tax law. Tax law? I hate taxes. Why should I go and do something like that? But the Lord says: Be submissive, wives, you are to be submissive to your husbands."

You hear that ladies? Be submissive and do what your husband tells you. Hey, while you're at it, why don't you walk 15 feet behind him and wear a burka?

It also explains why so many "real men" like Mitch just love Bachmann.

Posted by: Doug at October 17, 2006 09:48 PM

"biasedly"? This from some twit who picked up on "Faux News"? So original I'm almost impressed.

Klobuchar said it well, "How can you fix a problem you won't even admit exits?"

If a tree falls in a forest, what is the sound of one hand clapping, and can Patty Wetterling actually speak in a campaign ad?
Meanwhile Doug the Angry Clerk compares Republicans to radical Muslims.

You guys are such a joke.

Posted by: Kermit at October 17, 2006 10:32 PM

Kermit said,

"Meanwhile Doug the Angry Clerk compares Republicans to radical Muslims."

Saudis are radical Muslims? Uh oh. Better put them on the invasion short list too...

Posted by: Doug at October 17, 2006 10:37 PM

Doug,

Don't let the Frog bother you, he has to resort to insulting people's occupation for entertainment, probably having something to do with his own feelings of inadequacy.

Kermit,

Bachmann helped a Church get cited for violating non-profit regulations. If Wetterling can't speak, the counter side is that the Bachmann folks are afraid of letting Michitler out of the box.

What fun times, and mature too. Frankly, I never said Faux news was an original, have you had an original thought yet? Are you sure?

Posted by: ted at October 17, 2006 11:23 PM

Ted, It ain't no thing... I have relayed numerous times what I do for a living yet he always goes back to the "clerk" trough to feed.

Ironically, he's never volunteered what he does for a living. He seems to have an extensive knowledge of the types of responsibilities one would have working in a place like Walmart or Home Depot.

Considering the vast number of hyprocrisies oozing out from Republicans these days, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he were the lot boy at Walmart.

Posted by: Doug at October 18, 2006 12:04 AM


"He seems to have an extensive knowledge of the types of responsibilities one would have working in a place like Walmart or Home Depot."
"I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he were the lot boy at Walmart."

That's from Doug, champion of the working class.

Posted by: Terry at October 18, 2006 02:45 AM

"Same Mitch, same b*tch."

Cicero weeps.

"Mitch, you seem to get bent over a barrel about a decidedly biased poll, but have no issues rendering decidedly biased opinion and even more with ignoring bias on the right."

It's fairly simple, Ted (and it'll need to be): I am *honest* and *forthright* about my biases. The Strib claims to have none.

See the difference yet?

"You claim the Strib does the acts biasedly, rail against that bias and yet have previously said openly promoting a biased view is the way all politics and media should be."

Yep.

The difference that you've (inevitably) missed is that the Strib *is not* honest about its biases.

Doug,

"You hear that ladies? Be submissive and do what your husband tells you. Hey, while you're at it, why don't you walk 15 feet behind him and wear a burka?"

Right. Michele Bachmann follows a fundie interpretation of the Bible, and has turned out to be a meek little doormat for her husband.

You *sure* you wanna stick with that?

Honestly, Doug - do you even try?

Posted by: mitch at October 18, 2006 05:28 AM

Mitch said,

"Right. Michele Bachmann follows a fundie interpretation of the Bible, and has turned out to be a meek little doormat for her husband.

You *sure* you wanna stick with that?"

A meek little doormat for her husband??? Hardly.

In fact, I've met the Bachmanns and I would say that that her hubby fits the stereotype of a cuckold husband.

And with Michele prancing around the house with her stilettos and her Hoover... well... You can paint your own picture...

Remember though Mitch, it is Bachmann herself that offered the Pentateuchial image of the good obedient wife.

Do I believe it? Of course not and neither should anyone in the 6th.

Posted by: Doug at October 18, 2006 09:29 AM

"In fact, I've met the Bachmanns and I would say that that her hubby fits the stereotype of a cuckold husband."

Note to the Bachmanns and their attorneys - this is *DOUG'S* opinion. Address any defamation suits for this rather cowardly little bit of anonymous character assassination to Doug, not to me.

I've met the Bachmanns, and I'd say you are out of your mind.

Posted by: mitch at October 18, 2006 11:17 AM

Hmmm... I wasn't aware you could file a defamation suit for expressing an opinion.

I guess Michele would know since she is an attorney (even though she didn't want to be but God told her to... or was it her husband... I forget)

Why do you hate freedom of speech Mitch?

Posted by: Doug at October 18, 2006 01:36 PM

I don't hate freedom of speech.

I just hate *dumb* speech.

Posted by: mitch at October 18, 2006 02:04 PM

Damn. You must have a really difficult time listening the President speak then...

Posted by: Doug at October 18, 2006 02:39 PM

Yeah, but John Kerry is worse!

Posted by: mitch at October 18, 2006 04:00 PM

Except that Kerry wasn't dumb.

He is however a 6'4" capsule of Amb1en.

Posted by: Doug at October 19, 2006 12:56 AM

So you guys lost twice to the "dumb" guy?

Wow. Impressive.

Posted by: mitch at October 19, 2006 12:29 PM

No Mitch. We lost twice to the brilliant strategy behind the dumb guy.

Posted by: Doug at October 22, 2006 10:47 PM
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