Shot In The Dark: On The Way To A Solution

July 25, 2006

On The Way To A Solution

I'm not normally one to quote from my comments section in creating new posts - it's kind of lazy if you make too much a habit of it.

But occasionally, a comment gives me the impetus for a post.

As did a comment in this thread the other day.

I dinged on the UN's potential role in...well, anything, but specifically the Middle East, by way of saying we shouldn't trust amateurs or the Demcrats to defend this nation.

The commenter responded:

Yes, and where our missions to stabilize countries have done so well by comparison.

Vietnam
Iraq
Somalia
Lebanon

Excellent points.

Vietnam started out as a low-key operation to enable the South Vietnamese to defend themselves against a guerrilla incursion. Until 1962, it was almost entirely a special forces operation - "Green Berets" teaching South Vietnamese army and militia units how to fight. It was, like all counterinsurgency operations, slow, painstaking, occasionally painful work - there are no shortcuts in counterinsurgency war.

Then, in 1962, John Kennedy - smarting from his defeat at the Bay of Pigs - needed a PR victory. His cabinet told him Vietnam was low-hanging fruit. So Kennedy sent in the Marines; the conflict widened, and LBJ sent in half a million soldiers and committed the US military to winning a war that had escalated into a large superpower proxy war. All to win a PR battle.

Strike one for the Democrats.

Iraq? It's a counterinsurgency war. No shortcuts. It will be slow, and painful (increasingly so for the Iraqis, less so for us - and sometime in the next 5-10 years, if fought aggressively, will end with a whimper rather than a bang.

Somalia: a limited US relief mission got turned, by Clinton, into a wider police action, from which the Democrat administration scampered like a scared bunny when there was a chance that the "Black Hawk Down" incident would erode the Clinton poll numbers.

Lebanon? Bad idea.

So let's see - three strikes against Democrats, one against a Republican.

I'm liking where I'm sitting at the moment.

We sure do get the prize for success, the only one that comes to mind that worked is Bosnia, which Mitch of course opposed.

And I was right - it should have been NATO's job.

And we're still involved in the Balkans. There is no "exit strategy". We have no idea when our troops will be out of there.

No prize there.

Mitch, I'd be interested to hear your prediction for success in Iraq. Having recently turned the corner again with the establishment of a unity government, and seen daily attacks go from 24 per day average to 34 per day, how long, do you suppose it will be until there is peace?

A little more context, please? The number of attacks bobs up and down like a hyperactive flamingo.

Will I predict when we succeed? It'll be a while. We'll win - the more firm we stay in pursuit of the goal, the sooner we (and Iraq) will win.

Oh, and would you please enlighten us all on how the situation with the Kurds will turn out, especially please concentrate on telling us how it will be different than the very accurate predictions from the left about how things were going to pan out.

The Kurds, able to determine their own destiny, will work things out. The Kurds - scattered across Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria - have been fighting against all four nations, to one extent or another, for over thirty years. They have many just grievances against all four nations, and vice versa. It will take diplomacy - internal and external - to sort out. For the first time, the Kurds have a stake in the future of one of those four nations; that will help.

Just for the record, they predicted:

a. extensive, long-lasting strife between Sunnis and Shiites [Really? Who predicted that before the war? I mean, in terms of specifics? ]
b. long-term destabilizing activity by AQ - a force not present prior to our invasion[Misdirection - AQ isn't the only terrorist group to be concerned about. And patently untrue at any rate - Zarquawi was known to be operating in Iraq, and the continuing translation of Baath party documents is shedding more light on Iraqi/terror (not just Iraqi]
c. eventual strife between the Kurds and Turkey [Um, no prize for that - they've been fighting for two generations, and that's just the latest bout. But we've gone three years in relative peace - anything is possible.]

Lots of luck, Left.