Bush: Still Clever?

As re this week's immigration fracas, here's my unlikely-but-entertaining theory.

Immigration is, demographically, a third-rail type of issue; if the President comes down too hard on illegals, he risks (say GOP critics) alienating parts of 13% of the population for the next couple of generations. Presidents make good symbols for peoples' electoral wrath.

In the meantime, history shows us that people are incredibly reticent about taking anger about national issues out on their local congresspeople.

Bush, knowing he doesn't have to run for re-election, puts a soft face on for the issue, and uses his keystone speech on the issue earlier this week as a moderating statement - angering a base he no longer needs...

...and giving the Congresspeople who do need the base an opportunity to step out, take the lead on the issue, and earn some of the approval that the GOP-controlled Congress has lost (it currently trails the President's lousy numbers).

So - Bush eats the anger on the issue to insulate the party from accusations of being too hard-line, and lets Congress earn the goodwill from the base (and indeed 2/3 of the population - including, one supposes, plenty of undecideds and blue-collar Democrat voters) for actually doing the job (to the extent that the job can actually get done).

It's just a theory.