Stockpile prescription drugs? Any old prescription drugs? Don't they have shelf life? Where is FEMA? Can we stand on our rootops a hold up signs saying "We need Nyquil"? Will there be airdrops of Kleenex and Charmin?
I'm going to spend all day worrying about this now.
Thanks a lot, Mitch.

I don't know if you were referring to me in the headline or to that TV guy who spells his first name without an "h". This is a topic, however, I've covered on my blog several times because my day job has brought me into contact with Dr. Osterholm and others who are studying the potential pandemic. The worst-case projections are sobering and not that far-fetched, but one person I've talked to is feeling a bit more optimistic given the attention the issue is getting and the resources being devoted to it, especially in moving to gene-based instead of the older, slower egg-based vaccine development.

Stockpiling isn't a bad idea, but not in the hopes of avoiding exposure. That will be almost impossible to prevent and pandemics typically run 12 to 18 months. There are a few things you can do to reduce your risks, but mainly you've got to hope the statistics are in your favor (projections are 25 to 30% will become infected). The reason you'd want to stockpile is to ensure you have essentials during short-term social disruptions such as people not going to work (either because they're sick or afraid of getting sick). Our economy and distribution systems are largely on a "just-in-time" basis anymore and disruptions in production and distribution can quickly create shortages and other economic ramifications. Look at what happened in Toronto during the SARS episode a few years back for an economic microcosm.

While the experts are very much in the mode that a pandemic is a "when" not "if" event (regardless of whether or not it's H5N1, these things historically come around every 30 years or so), I think there is some optimism that if an outbreak is a year away that you can cut the worst-case projections by half. An excellent aggregation site on the latest avian flu developments is at http://avianflu.typepad.com/avianflu/

I have serious doubts as whether this "problem" will even become a problem. if it is does, what are you really going to do?

I can't afford to take a year off and sit at home eating Spam. I doubt that many people can, or will.

Well, I suspect those of us who can will be doing a lot of telecommuting.

The interesting part is going to be finding out what - if anything - school systems are doing so far.

"The interesting part is going to be finding out what - if anything - school systems are doing so far."

Looking for newer, inproveder, superintendents?

"The interesting part is going to be finding out what - if anything - school systems are doing so far."

Promoting homeschooling is right out given their nature, I suppose, although that's a pretty nice alternative.

Note to self: start to stockpile homeschooling stuff, too.

I caught this interesting tidbit, however. The avian flu settles a lot more deeply into the lungs than the normal flu, and this cuts transmisability way down. The only human to human spread has been those who have been in very close contact.

I suspect since it's lethality is because of the damage it does to the airsacs in the lower part of the lung, if it mutates to become more transmisible that would (hopefully) mean it won't settle so deeply into the lungs and hence affect such a critical part of the lung tissue (meaning lower mortality).

Now, I wonder how long it will take before we have terrorists genetically modifying the flu, and make it so it only affects those of northern European descent...

Stockpile? I got a couple weeks from overbuying just like everyone else. If it becames an issue I'm going to get a copy of the that list the Mormans use. What I'm more concerned with is what with schools and daycares being the most common transmission vectors they might get shut down during the worst of it.

There was a time that SARS was the big deal and 3M masks were the popular thing to have, and it has quietly gone away. Now it's the bird flu. Personally, I'm not worried. When it crosses from birds to pigs, then I might become concerned.

If you like Mike Osterholm's stuff, here's the link to his site through the U:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/

Good luck stockpiling pseudoephedrine.