Mitch's Predictions, 2003 Edition

It's almost the end of the year. Time to fess up on my predictions from this time last year.

Last year, I predicted:

1. By this time next year, the link between Al Quaeda and Iraq will be documented. [Hey, we're getting close...]
   
2. Most of the world will doubt that Bin Laden is alive - with evidence pointing toward his death in Tora Bora in December of 2001. [Ooops.]
   
3. Since my political predictions are usually the kiss of death for a politician, I predict Dean will beat Bush by 30 electoral votes. Heh heh. [Tongue firmly in cheek, that one. I will note that I did nail the popular vote number last November]
   
4. I will have a date that isn't an exercise in self-abnegation, or worse, black comedy. Maybe two. [Four, but the situation is still young. The chance for self-immolation is still very much there.]

And then, just before the election, I said predicted a Bush victory in the electoral count, with a 300-238 final score. I had the states nearly right - only Minnesota and Hawaii wrong, as it happened. But the predictions went downhill from here:

The wierd thing is, except for Hawaii, I don't think I'm being especially overoptimistic in making this prediction.

I figure Bush will capture two from the troika of MN, WI and IA; WI seems the least likely to me right now.

As to Ohio, I'm taking Hugh's word for it - with good reason, I think.

Senate: GOP picks up two seats.

House: GOP picks up six.

Court cases embroil at least two states.

Not bad, all in all. However:

Violence will break out in at least a few places, with one fatality as a group of Democrats beats a Republican to death.

Not sorry I was wrong, there.

Next year's predix, tomorrow.

Posted by Mitch at December 30, 2004 10:53 AM | TrackBack