Harbinger?
Polipundit draws our attention to some stuff buried in the latest New York Times/CBS Poll
John Kerry has a 41% favorable, 47% unfavorable rating. This is his worst rating ever.
President Bush has a 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable rating. That is his best rating since last December.
Undecided voters lean to President Bush 50%-47%, validating the Pew finding and calling the Gallup number into question.
66% of Bush voters strongly favor their candidate.
50% of Kerry voters strongly favor their candidate.
By a 49%-34% margin, voters expect President Bush to win.
President Bush has a 49%-44% job approval rating.
The right track today is 43%. In 1996, it was only 39%.
48% of voters will vote on national security issues; only 33% on domestic issues.
By a 54%-29%, voters believe the Bush Administration has made them safer.
53% of voters do not think that Kerry agrees with their priorities, his worst number ever. 42% believe he has the same.
48% of voters do not think that Bush agrees with their priorities. 49% believe he does share their priorities.
52% of voters think Kerry has leadership qualities, his lowest number ever.
62% of voters think President Bush has leadership qualities.
57% of voters are uneasy with Kerry’s ability to handle a crisis.
60% believe Kerry says what people want to hear. Only 36% say that about President Bush.
53% of Americans say we did the right think in Iraq. Only 42% disagree.
31% say their families are better off than they were four years ago. 40% say about the same.
Most importantly, the percentage of voters call themselves a liberal has declined to 17%, the lowest number since 1997. 35% call themselves conservative.
My Scandinavian heritage makes unfettered optimism impossible. I am always looking for the whammy around every corner.
But that news in particular is good.
Which informs my final prediction, coming out later today.
Posted by Mitch at
November 1, 2004 08:06 AM
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More NUMBERS! Can't stand the numbers any more! Must. Get. Through. Tomorrow. Die, numbers, DIE!!!!!
Posted by: Ryan at November 1, 2004 09:13 AMSix Gmail invites for Mitch Berg (& NARN) fans:
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Posted by: RBMN at November 1, 2004 11:22 AMhttp://gmail.google.com/gmail/a-c222cefd00-feffcb2085-0a67df4aed
Mitch--
The race is so close that both sides can predict victory, but two quick things:
1. Fox has it for Kerry, 48-46
2. In the Gallup poll, Kerry leads by 4% among independents. No president has ever won reelection without winning among independents in the Gallup poll.
You may now return to your scheduled rosy scenario.
Posted by: Jeff Fecke at November 1, 2004 12:55 PMWhether all those polled voters manage to peel themselves off the couch to actually, you know, VOTE, will of course remain to be seen. If someone called and asked me what I'd do with a million dollars, I'd enthusiastically tell them. Doesn't mean I'll ever have a million dollars though.
Posted by: Ryan at November 1, 2004 01:11 PMJeff - you pick ONE poll that shows a Kerry lead (well withing the MOE), while Gallup, ARG and ABC/Wapo show a tie and Reut/Zog, Rasmussen, Mason/Dixon, NBC/WSG, GW/Battleground, CBS/NYTimes, Pew and Newsweek are all showing Bush ahead - and *I'm* the one with the rosy scenario?
Other polls have shown Bush beating Kerry among indies - and the word from the GOP Big Cheeses is that if we break even among indies, we still win.
You pick the polls you want (and, as we saw above, you most certainly do!).
Posted by: mitch at November 1, 2004 01:21 PM