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October 03, 2004

News Flash: Majority of Democrats Prefer Kerry!

Patterico notes the significance of the Newsweek poll that shows Kerry ahead:

The Newsweek poll, which has rather consistently overpolled Democrats as compared to the other major polls, shows Kerry having erased his deficit in the first post-debate poll.
In the meantime, the LATimes goes against type to note that the underlying numbers behind Bush's post-convention strength are not only unchanged - they're up (as Rocket Man noted on the show yesterday). Patterico notes:
Presuming the Newsweek poll is an outlier--a reasonable assumption given its history and what we've seen in other polls so far--this would seem to support the conventional wisdom that there are very few undecided voters. And, as is usually the case, most people watching the debate already have their minds made up.
The Democrats - especially the leftybloggrs - are hanging onto the Newsweek poll like it's the last life jacket on the Titanic. I haven't seen any swing state polling yet, though. I have a hunch Red American is perfectly fine with Bush's performance.

UPDATE: Did I say Patterico? I meant James Joyner.

Hi, James!

It's odd - I had "Outside the Beltway" misfiled on my Sharpreader, and for whatever reason I had him listed as "Patterico".

Blah. I feel like Nick Coleman.

Posted by Mitch at October 3, 2004 11:51 AM | TrackBack
Comments

It will all be for naught unless Bush comes out in next debate and commercials and gut Kerry on the stage.

People are just plain friggin' stupid that that will vote for good height, nice white teeth and a artificial tan in the Kerry mode.

Buash and Rove best get their heads out of their ass and come out swinging hard, other he will lose it...and we will have to put up with President kerry for four year or until the nuke goes off in one of our cities and after that Katie bar the doors...

My two cens...it is your guys choice...fight or die...

Bush acted totally pussy whipped and I support the guy!!

Posted by: Greg at October 3, 2004 12:07 PM

Umm, that's not Patterico...

Posted by: James Joyner at October 3, 2004 12:55 PM

Hell No!!

Just a p*ssed off Bush supporter wondering why this dog won't hunt....

Posted by: Greg at October 3, 2004 01:36 PM

James,

Oops - my bad. I'll fix it.

Posted by: mitch at October 3, 2004 02:29 PM

Greg,

Your reasoning would be more cogent if you actually read the piece and wrote something germane. Also if you weren't a moron.

Posted by: Tommie at October 3, 2004 04:00 PM

Tommie, have a nice day!!

Posted by: Greg at October 3, 2004 07:37 PM

Huh. Funny. You know, when Newsweek was "oversampling" Republicans in the post-RNC polls, nobody on the right was complaining about their methodology. (I put oversampling in quotes because party ID is fluid--the Democrats whining about oversampling were trying to find reasons the polls weren't valid.)

Don't mistake me: the Newsweek poll is but one poll. It's validity cannot be proven--yet. But in one poll, with one consistent methodology, Kerry has jumped 14% in one month.

Tell me that doesn't make you just a little bit concerned.

Posted by: Jeff Fecke at October 3, 2004 10:05 PM

Newsweek poll looking much more likely to be true:

CNN/USA Today/Gallup, LV:

Kerry 49% (+7)
Bush 49% (-4)
Nader 1% (-2)

That is a thirteen point swing in one poll.

Carry on.

Posted by: Jeff Fecke at October 3, 2004 10:23 PM

"You know, when Newsweek was "oversampling" Republicans in the post-RNC polls, nobody on the right was complaining about their methodology."

Actually, if you paid attention, the Northern Alliance pretty specifically said just that.

" in one poll, with one consistent methodology, Kerry has jumped 14% in one month."

It's there you're wrong. Newsweek oversampled Republicans in the poll after the convention, and is oversampling Democrats in the current poll.

"Tell me that doesn't make you just a little bit concerned."

Polls? Pffft. No.

What makes me concerned is that the Bears are showing little improvement so far this year, and that we have about 45% of our population who believes the crap John Kerry is spooning out ("Global Test?" What the f***ing f**k is that hamster babbling about?), and that gabbling, cretinous intellectual midgets like Duncan "Atrios" Black and Oliver Willis earn a living from blogging, while people like Ed Morrissey have to work day jobs.

Polls? Nah. There's an old saying in military history; "Mediocre minds discuss strategy, fair to middling minds discuss tactics, great minds discuss logistics". Polls are like strategy. Organizing people is logistics. And I think the GOP has finally gotten the Dems beat at that game.

We'll know soon enough. But am I worried? Less than I was eight weeks ago, and I wasn't very worried then.

Posted by: mitch at October 4, 2004 12:15 AM

>> Blah. I feel like Nick Coleman.

Impossible, he wouldn't have bothered correcting himself *laughing*

Flash

Posted by: Flash at October 4, 2004 10:56 PM
hi