Article Submission-but on a much different subject

Tom Proebsting e-mail: proebstingt@yahoo.com
My Blog: http://truthprobe.blogspot.com

What To Do About Iran

Iran's government seized some British navel ships a few months ago and after a few days, let the sailors go free. Iran has been pursuing the setting up of centrifuges in its country to enrich uranium for "peaceful" purposes, that is, for energy sources. It has met with increased opposition from Germany, France, and Britain on this policy. The U.S. is chasing al-Qaeda out of Afghanistan after replacing the Taliban government and is seeking Democracy in Iraq. What will we do about Iran, one of George Bush's "Axis of Evil" countries?

Due to internal conflicts and pressures inside the country of Iran, America will most likely not seek to impose change in Iran from the outside, but instead will support the Iranian people in their own quest for Democracy. The Iranians will eventually do it themselves as change is needed.

If we impose sanctions, containment, and diplomatic pressure, these will not change the Islamic Republic's behavior. There are several reasons for this, the main ones being Iran's fierce sense of national independence, the Byzantine dynamics of Iran's domestic politics, the freewheeling character of Shia theology, and the emergence of the Third Force (which is Iran's population born after its Islamic revolution of 1979, not having witnessed it nor the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980's.)

The Iranians, of Persian, not Arab, descent are very independent and put up with no outside interference no matter what. Many that are in power would like to commit their country to a separation of mosque and state, knowing this is the most efficient choice in the matter. The Shia theology is open to more dynamic and diverse interpretations on its role in government. A major reason for Iran's coming regime change and one which must be done from the inside is the Third Force, a young and diverse group of the population which agree on one thing and one thing only-the need for a change.

There are several reasons why Iran will most likely be propelled to some form of Democracy. Anywhere from 15% to 40% of its population live in dire poverty. The rate of inflation is twice as high as it was in the 1970's prior to the Islamic Revolution. Unemployment is three time higher than it was in the 70's. Economic growth is two thirds lower than it was during the 70's decade. Iran's Interior Ministry leaked out a survey of its people revealing that 90% were dissatisfied with their government. Subsidy systems benefit mainly its urban rich. Plus, Iran's various taxes are a substantial burden on its citizens' pocketbooks.

Looking across the border, a free and Democratic Iraq would encourage the Third Force to intensify its reform efforts. Ditto for the changes in neighboring Afghanistan. Iran's ongoing political impasse, where there is much disagreement, threatens its Islamic state. More threats come from Iran's economic distress, the social turmoil, and Iraq's invasion.

Washington must and will follow a calculated "wait and see" policy. Meanwhile, if vital U.S. national interests are not seriously threatened by Iran and if Iran is not clearly implicated in anti-American terrorist acts, America should and will most likely refrain from tough talk and tough action against Iran. The wait will be worth it.The change will be for the better.

Wow, this is new. Blog Promotion Spam.

Even being a Keegan, I don't know that Keegan's even cracks the top five. O'Donovan's, the Dubliner, the Lifey. I'd walk across the river for a corn beef sandwich from O'Donovan's.
Paddy

I go to the Dubliner - it's in my neighborhood - and I like it, but I like Keegan's better. Liffey is also just fine. Never been to O'Donovan's.