The Pundit Confesses

Sullivan admits it - the pundits are all wrong, again:

What a hilarious period for punditry (and I include myself). I don't know a soul who, only a couple weeks ago, predicted a four-way tie in Iowa. And yet the voters are making their minds up regardless of us media masturbators. What gall!

That's right - a month ago, Edwards was circling the drain, Dean was a shoe-in, and Kerry was an ongoing joke.

The turning point?

The minute Al Gore endorsed Howard Dean, I instinctively opined that the Dean candidacy was finished. And, sure enough, as soon as Gore touched the Dean campaign, things began to go wrong. I should have trusted my instinct: Al Gore is always political death. Now all we need is to find out whom Johnny Apple thinks will win, and we'll be all set. C'mon, Johnny. Put us out of our misery.

Misery, Schmisery. This is great entertainment - both the ongoing rhubarb in Iowa, and the meltdown of the pundits.

The most-common opinion I see in the blogosphere seems to involve polls in Iowa being wrong, and Dean walking away with it in the end.

The most interesting "intellectual" exercise so far: everything so far points, in the event of a Bush victory, to a Hillary!/Gore showdown in '08. What on earth can the GOP do to counter the limitless free publicity the Dems'll get from what will turn out to be the political grudge match of the century? If the Hillary!/Gore grudge slam didn't exist, the Dems would have to invent it.

It's going to be a fun Monday.

Posted by Mitch at January 19, 2004 06:24 AM