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May 12, 2006

Tink: Stinking Thinking On Brink of Sinking

Gary at KvM on the 6th CD race: and El Tinklenberg - Patty Wetterling's main challenge for the DFL nod:

Any serious analysis that had CD-6 “in play” was contingent on Elwyn Tinklenberg gaining his party’s endorsement and brandishing his centrist credentials to the largely conservative folks of the northern exurbs that comprise the 6th.

Today’s pronouncement by Tinklenberg — that he would support impeachment of President Bush — may be talking dirty to the DFL delegates who will congregate in Monticello this weekend — but also gives Mrs. Bachmann an issue with which she would beat Mr. Tinklenberg like a rented mule all autumn long in a district that went 57% for the President.

This is good.

That's the kind of tinfoil-hat BS that'll play to the Kathleen Soliah wing of the DFL in the metro. Gary's right - people in the Sixth will probably have no time for that.

Of course, I'd imagine that he's counting on nobody in the Sixth hearing about it...

Posted by Mitch at May 12, 2006 05:44 AM | TrackBack
Comments

While any politician talking about impeachment prospects during a campaign may not be the brightest move, President Bush is, I think, the only president to publically admit to an impeachable offense.

Fulcrum

Posted by: Fulcrum at May 12, 2006 11:10 AM

With the President's approval's in the low 30's, even 20's in some polls, I am not sure how much longer you can cling on to that 57% figure from 1 1/2 years ago.

The best gift the GOP could have given the Left is endorsing a polarizing, one trick pony like Bachmann. If Tink gets the endorsment, that seat will become a high ranking pick up for the Left. Patty would still have her hands full.

Flash

Posted by: Flash at May 12, 2006 11:19 AM

Tink's behind the curve. From today's WaPo: *Democrats Won't Try To Impeach President.*

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/11/AR2006051101950.html?nav=rss_politics

Let Tink run with this if he gets the nomination; Bachmann will beat him on the deck until there is nothing left but blood. It really says something when the likes of Nancy Pelosi and John Conyers warn against using impeachment as an issue.

Posted by: Paul at May 12, 2006 11:43 AM

Ok. I like it when people like Flash task me to look into the facts. Let's compare the 2000 and 2004 Bush numbers for the 6 counties that make up the majority of CD6. All information is easily available at the Mn SOS website:

Anoka: Bush increased by 5.2%
Benton: Bush increased by 3.2%
Sherburne: Bush increased by 6.2%
Stearns: Bush increased by 3.4%
Washington: Bush increased by 3.1%
Wright: Bush increased by 5.8%

So, is this an indicator of a more conservative and/or Republican bent to the district? I tend to think the answer is yes. Furthermore, I believe about 80% of the state-level elected officials are Republican. More evidence? I think so.

Comparing approval polls to actual votes hardly provides a true barometer of the voters. Once Joe Six-pack gets to the voting booth, he's had a chance to review what each candidate stands for. And while people might not approve of Bush, they darn well know that the alternative is MUCH worse.

CD6 is conservative and any Democrat is going to lose. Wetterling spent all 2004 hiding her positions and only got within 8 points of winning. And a full-view of Wacky Patty and her gang of liberal friends will not improve her number.

Posted by: Dave at May 12, 2006 12:43 PM

Off subject, but Mark Kennedy needs to employ people with better Photoshop skills, either that he has recently grown a third arm in order to shake more hands!

http://www.markkennedy06.com/

Fulcrum

Posted by: Fulcrum at May 12, 2006 02:48 PM

Dave:

I don't deny the Right lean to the district. I just don't think you can tout 2004 electoral percentages as some sort of definitive proof that a One Trick hater like Bachmann will match those numbers. Bush's approvals have dropped 20 percentage points in the last year (http://www.surveyusa.com/Client/PollTrack.aspx?g=72c27931-3c8b-47d7-b9d3-ee08c00391db)
That will translate to lost support for GOP candidates this year. Simple Math

Fulcrum: Funny thing is they still have the PhotoHack job up on his website. Talk about being out of touch!

Flash

Posted by: Flash at May 12, 2006 03:03 PM

That should read his approvals have dropped 10 points in the last year.

Flash

Posted by: Flash at May 12, 2006 03:07 PM

No, Flash...you are missing my point. Frankly, if I was polled, I'd disappove of the President's job right now too. His illegal alien policy has much to do with my attitude.

But does that mean I would vote against him? Compared to John Kerry? Absolutely...I vote for Bush again.

That's the point. The snapshot you are taking does not ask a second, IMPORTANT question: "Given the choice between Kerry and Bush...who do you vote for?" Bush's numbers would be significantly higher than his job approval.

As far as your snipes at Bachmann, I've met her a number of times and is certainly a smart, savy woman who will represent CD6 well. Despite the Hate-Bachmann loopy crowd. Flash....your real name isn't Eva....is it?

Posted by: Dave at May 12, 2006 03:18 PM

Flash's problem is that he thinks Bush is a conservative. He's not. He's far from it, and has been going farther as time goes on. Like Dave, I'd rate Bush a failure on most of the issues I care about, but he gets the biggest ones right, and even where he fails he's better than what the Democrats have to offer.

Bush's only connection to the conservative wing of the party is with the social conservatives, and they're not the dominant strain of conservatism in the party.

Posted by: nerdbert at May 12, 2006 04:31 PM

"That will translate to lost support for GOP candidates this year. Simple Math"

Very simple math. 1 + 2 = 5. Clue for Fulcrum: George Bush isn't running for the Minnesota 6th.

Posted by: Kermit at May 12, 2006 05:06 PM

Correct, nerdbert. Bush is just a bit more conservative than John McCain, but not much. But at the end of the day, I will vote for the more conservative option of the two presented.

And as its been said, Bush AIN'T running in the 6th. Bachmann IS. And all this crap about Bachmann being a one-issue candidate is pure crap. Frankly, I think Bachmann will know that drilling in ANWAR is a GOOD thing (including for the procreation of the karibou), while our friend Mark Kennedy has been against it.

If its Tinky-Dinky or Pathetic Patty....they are both road-kill in the 6th.

Posted by: Dave at May 12, 2006 08:41 PM

Oh Fulcrum and Flash, you might want to check on that "Photoshop" job. Apparently even MPR realizes that the DFL can't shoot straight and have admitted that it wasn't a doctored photo at all. The original blog that raised the issue has apologized at http://www.dflsenate.com, so check it out.

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