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July 21, 2005

London Again

More bombings - or attempted bombings - in London?

Two weeks after suicide attacks on subway stations and a bus, police evacuated three subway stations and a bus after reports of smoke and an explosion today. Police said one person was hurt but it was not a "major incident.''
Another unconfirmed report says that one of the bombs may have been a squib:
"He said that a man was carrying a rucksack and the rucksack suddenly exploded. It was a minor explosion but enough to blow open the rucksack," McCracken said. "The man then made an exclamation as if something had gone wrong. At that point everyone rushed from the carriage."
The London Times has an unconfirmed report of one injury.

Another report indicates a bomb blew out the windows of a bus, with no injuries.

UPDATE: Reuters says there were four explosions. No injuries so far.

Four bombings, no injuries. Why? I'm seeing two possibilities:

  • The terrorists are down to using their "B" team. They built a batch of squib bombs; all bang, no bite. Luck is good.
  • The terrorists tossed off a squib attack to lull the west into complacency.
I'm hoping for the first choice.

Posted by Mitch at July 21, 2005 07:47 AM | TrackBack
Comments

Thank God, but I'd still like to make sure this "B" team gets to the "afterlife" as they planned, but by themselves. After they talk.

Posted by: RBMN at July 21, 2005 09:37 AM

I think it's much more likely that htey detonated some bombs to put the lie to the idea of safety, or that London should expect a lull now. I think you're seeing a specific action that we have no idea what the agenda is, other than perhaps to show the U.K. that they are now targets, i.e. to terrorize them into not knowing when to expect another attack.

Posted by: PB at July 21, 2005 11:50 AM

Wrong, boys. Just as with the nomination of John Roberts, this is all part of the 'master plan' by Karl Rove to distract attention from Plame-gate. Can't you see this? Its so obvious.

Posted by: Dave at July 21, 2005 01:08 PM

PB,

Doubt that for a couple of reasons.

Why expose your organization to an investigation over an incident that didn't actually DO anything? You can be certain that because of the MO and symbolism, MI5, Scotland Yard (and probably the FBI) will be on this case just as thoroughly as they would had another 50 (or 500) people died. It'd seem to me that if you're going to go to the trouble of getting bombs into the tube, you might as well take out some infidels - not to mention four bombers and living witnesses. Remember - there are four "bombers" running around London, one of the most heavily surveilled cities in the world, each of which can provide another piece or two of the puzzle.

Also - I've never heard of any terror group pulling off a feint attack for the reasons you give. I'd think blown-up trains and buses would send a much more emphatic message - especially given the risk of detection.

It's a theory, PB, but to me it just doesn't pass the smell test.

Posted by: mitch at July 21, 2005 01:09 PM

Your misinterpreting what I said a bit. First, its certainly possible, and at this point it appears probable, that they attempted to set-off larger devices than they seem to have managed. OTOH, all three not working right?? That's a little bit of a stretch.

My point was in response to your point of squib attacks to lull complacency, and the fact that these are purported (and I'll believe that for right now) to be attacks that simply came off badly, I don't think anyone was attempting complacency. I also don't think that it's a "B" team, it's another team, albeit a team that failed, but certainly it's not clear they were any less intent, or any less funded. They may have been given a bad bomb maker, and that's about all you can conclude.

My point was that their intent was HIGHLY likely to be purposefully sending a message that this is not stopping soon, the OPPOSITE of complacency (your 2nd supposition).

PB

Posted by: PB at July 21, 2005 05:21 PM

No, I actually agree.

As far as the "OTOH, all three not working right?? That's a little bit of a stretch" bit goes - not so much. If one guy makes the bombs, and he just doesn't get that whole "connect the detonator to the charge" thing, or maybe they got a bad batch of explosives, or explosives too stable for the detonators they used...

Just trying to think of things that'd cause four bombs to misfire simultaneously.

As you say, creating complacency is waaaay down the list.

Posted by: mitch at July 21, 2005 05:31 PM

When I read the reports today about the relatively minor damages and all the problems with the bombs, the first thought that came to mind was that this was just a copycat attack of some sort. Quite frankly, I'd expect better execution of the attacks if it was al Qaeda again.

Posted by: Nick at July 21, 2005 05:41 PM

Yes, Mitch, I agree, and that was sort of the point of the last part, that in fact they may have simply had a bad bomb maker. I don't think it was 3 or 4 inept people, but probably one, was my point on the three going bad.

And as to whether it was Al Qaeda, who knows, lots of bombs in Isreal go off slightly wrong. Frankly, it takes practice, and as this appears to be a new cell or cell structure in Britain, I think again, you have to pretty careful about drawing many conclusions. The one thing that I've heard repeatedly about Al Qaeda's structure since 9/11 is that they've decentralized, so you are less likely to see one shop making all the bombs. It is more likely that you've got distributed cells getting directions centrally but acting individually.

PB

Posted by: PB at July 21, 2005 05:49 PM
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