Iraq Election Predictions

As Cap'n Ed noted yesterday, there's evidence that the terrorists in Iraq - operating in similar fashion to their ideological forebears in Algeria in the '90s - are going to throw a full-court press against the election, targeting poll workers, polling stations, voters themselves, and the troops (especially Iraqi troops) defending them.

Predictions:

• Attacks will be as scarce as hen's teeth outside the Sunni Triangle and Mosul, barring perhaps a few spoiler attacks in places like Basra.
• Coverage of that fact in the western media will be even scarcer.
• The vote in 2/3 of Iraq will run as smoothly as it did in Afghanistan - e.g., more smoothly and honestly than in, say, Milwaukee.
• That 2/3 of Iraq will recieve 0/3 of the news coverage on any major American news outlet.
• The fact that Sunnis will end up an minority in the new Parliament will be portrayed as "disenfranchisement" by at least one major American news outlet.
• At least one major liberal blogger will compare Sunnis to Democrats; I wouldn't bet against phraseology like "Ohio 2004/Sunni Triangle 2005".
• Oh, yeah. They'll get good turnout in the Triangle, and great turnout elsewhere. Everyone but the left's pundits will consider it a success.
• But you'll never see the "s" word on the American media.

Good luck to all the good guys - Iraqi, American, Brit, Polish, Dutch, Bulgarian, Korean, whatever. Especially the Iraqis. They have a formidable array of opponents dedicated to keeping them in the thrall of gangsters and thugs; some wear keffiyeh and carry RPGs through the alleys of Ramadi; others wear Brooks Brothers and carry cell phones through gleaming office buildings in Manhattan.

Posted by Mitch at January 26, 2005 08:04 AM | TrackBack