From the "Talk Talk" File

I had almost thought the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists had gone out of business.

No such luck. Their annoying little "Doomsday Clock" is still ticking - and, amazingly, it's at seven minutes 'til Midnight! Closer than during the Cuban Missile Crisis!

Nosuchblog reports:

The idea, I think, is that nuclear proliferation has increased uncertainty, and nuclear use by a rogue state or terrorist group has increased.

But the notion that civilization is closer to destruction than it was in 1963, 3 months after the Cuban Missile Crisis, is total poppycock.

It reflects the political biases and intellectual obsolescence of the "Bulletin of Atomic Scientists" more than it reflects any version of reality.

While unprovoked first use of a nuclear device, somewhere in the world, may be more likely than in 1963 because more different actors have access to the technology than in 1963, such use is far, far less likely to result in a massive exchange between superpowers than it was during the cold war. The more likely scenario is terrorist employment of an improvised or surplus device, resulting in a "fizzle". It would make a mess, and it would change the world, but it wouldn't mean armageddon, which was a real possibility during the cold war.

But the "Bulletin of Atomic Scientists" had the clock at three minutes to midnight during the Reagan administration, suggesting nuclear war was more likely in the 1980s than during the Cuban Missile Crisis. That was a little suspicious as well.

The BOAS is one of a long list of lefty pundits and pressure groups that are distinguished by never, ever being right about anything - but yet remain prominent.

Posted by Mitch at January 18, 2005 07:33 AM | TrackBack