I would argue that the Kerry candidacy was extremely strong. Think of everything it nearly overcame:
> No discernable record of achievement after 20 years in the Senate.
> Highly questionable war record.
> Public trashing of fellow soldiers.
> Private meetings with the enemy during war time.
> Extremely poor and highly inconsistent voting record on the most important issue of the day.
> No war time president ever unseated.
> Relatively low economic misery index.

Given all this, it is remarkable how close he came. Remarkable and frightening. Three factors were at play:

1) Inability of Bush to express himself effectively at critical times. As much as I wanted to will him to victory in the debates, he lost.

2) The media. Evan Thomas from Newsweek originally said that the press was worth 15 pts. for Kerry. He was quite proud of this. Later when Kerry was floundering Thomas said it was only 5 pts. Given the forged memos, the complete hall pass on Kerry's war/protest history, the trashing of the Swifties, etc. I would say Mr. Thomas was selling himself short.

3) The intelligence and skill of John Kerry, which I misunderestimated greatly. He was smart in, as the linked article says, not giving in to the anti-war part of the party -- a huge % of democratic primary voters. On the other hand, now that I think about it, this wasn't only Kerry's intelligence at work. The whole thing was a willful farce by the left, an wink-and-nod exercise in nominating a man who could be passed off to the middle as pro-security, but who "we know is really with us."

Perhaps it comes down to this: In order to win the Dem's needed a guy who could straddle the divide between the party faithful and the political center, and convince both he was with them. A man with great appeal and intelligence, but no actual beliefs. Or, at some point in time, every belief. John Forbes Kerry.

Could he have won with a Siser Soljah moment bashing Michael Moore to win more of the center? Or was he too worried about the fact his base was only luke warm about him to do it? What does that say about how he perceived his base?

Early on I predicted 48 states. At the time I stupidly assumed everything about Kerry's past actions and opinions would be reported. Without a complicit media it would have been a huge landslide.