Shot In The Dark: Up Two?

October 21, 2004

Up Two?

The latest Mason Dixon poll of battleground states shows shows Bush up two points in Minnesota.

If you believe Mason-Dixon - and I'm deeply ambivalent about polls in general, after their performance in Minnesota in 2002 - it's shaping up fairly well for Bush in battleground states that voted Gore four years ago:

Pennsylvania: Kerry 46, Bush 45
Oregon: Kerry 46, Bush 45
Iowa: Bush 49, Kerry 43 (!!!)
Wisconsin: Bush 45, Kerry 45
New Mexico: Bush 49, Kerry 44 (!!!)
Michigan: Kerry 47, Bush 46
Minnesota: Bush 47, Kerry 45

This is the first "official" poll anywhere that I've seen to confirm what a little bird told me the internal polls were saying two weeks ago - Bush has moved into a slight lead in Minnesota.

All touch and go for now, of course, but this is the best it's looked in Minnesota for a very long time.

Posted by Mitch at October 21, 2004 08:14 PM | TrackBack

Comments

Awesome

Posted by: Jarhead at October 21, 2004 09:16 PM

All that's left is for the Red Star/Evil Neighbor Minnesota Poll to show Kerry up by 2 in order to cover their ass by ending up within the margin of error.

Posted by: michael at October 22, 2004 01:15 AM

This is awesome news if true, given MD's record of accuracy in 2002. Kerry Spot calls these numbers MD's rumored numbers with no confirmation of them yet by Mason Dixon. Have they been confirmed?
Mrs. Ketchup's comments about Laura having no 'real job' could prove to be very important. I think that there are millions of stay at home moms who, like my lovely bride, 1) agree with W. on issues of foreign policy and security (or at least trust him more with the safety of their children), 2) traditionally vote democratic, disagree with Bush on issues of abortion, stem cells, etc, and have a hard time picturing themselves voting for W. Mrs. H-K's comments were highly offensive and condescending -- enough so that there's one less potential Kerry voter in my home, and I'm sure many others. It was the nudge they need to ignore their heart and vote with their head.

Posted by: chriss at October 22, 2004 08:25 AM

Isn't this where the Coleman-Mondale Race was in 2002 with the Star Trib giving Mondale a 5 point lead and the Pioneer Press giving Coleman a 2 point lead? If trends continue as they have over the last several years, this could be good news for Bush. Anytime a Republican is within 5 points of the Democratic candidate in a Star Trib Poll is a good sign

Posted by: MichaelT at October 22, 2004 10:18 AM

I know that in '02, the GOP internal polling was much more accurate than the Strib poll, and called the Coleman/Mondale race correctly LONG before anyone else.

Posted by: mitch at October 22, 2004 11:20 AM

Mitch,

I actually found someone who diagrees with most of the blogosphere about the polls:
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20041021.html
I read his stuff for the take on tech news, but when the politics seep through, Cringley is probably a little beyond Kerry on the spectrum.
Just thought you may like to see this.

Posted by: steep at October 22, 2004 11:51 AM

But they're only counting LEGAL votes, not dead people, illegal aliens, people with multiple (20-30) "personalities".

Posted by: Sharpshooter at October 25, 2004 01:58 PM