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October 13, 2004

Minnesota Poll: Kentucky Windage

The latest Minnesota Poll shows Kerry with a five point lead in Minnesota, down from ten points a few weeks ago:

On the eve of the third and final presidential debate, Sen. John Kerry has the support of 48 percent of likely voters in Minnesota while President Bush has the support of 43 percent, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found...

The latest poll, taken Oct. 9 to 11, shows a slight erosion of Kerry's lead since the last Minnesota Poll was conducted in early September, and with the percentages' margins of sampling error, the race could be a tossup. But Kerry's lead is consistent with about 10 other polls conducted in Minnesota during September and October, showing anything from a two-point Bush lead to a 10-point Kerry lead.

Of course, the Minnesota Poll has its problems, Peter from Swanblog notes:
"Kentucky Windage" or "windage" is a method of target shooting where the shooter deliberately aims off-target. This is to compensate for a moving target, weather conditions, or just a bad sight on the rifle. The new Star Tribune poll shows (surprise!) John Kerry with a slight lead. In order to properly interpret the Strib poll, one must use windage and add five to seven points to the Republican percentage. Scott Johnson of Powerline has a standing dinner bet with the Strib pollster that the Republican results on election day will be at least five points better than the final poll. As usual, the Powerline shot is right on target. This consistent polling error compounds the problems I wrote about with regard to the Strib endorsements.
Well, we'll certainly see if Scott is on the money (and food), but I'd be the last to bet against him. Remember - if the Minnesota Poll the month before the election were right, we'd be talking about Governor Moe and Senator Mondale.

Posted by Mitch at October 13, 2004 08:28 AM | TrackBack
Comments

I seem to recall that the last polls are always about 4 points off so they can claim that it is within the margin of error. Of course earlier Minnesota Polls are usually off actual results by as much as 15 percent.

To be consistently this far off always in one direction, it must be deliberate. It must be either a deliberate refusal to adjust methods because the results always give them the warm fuzzies, or a deliberate distortion in order to take the wind out of the Republican sails. By the last poll, always the one with the highest Republican margin, it is too late to regain momentum.
SO... Yep still about 7-8 points of spread to adjust in the Minnesota frickin poll.

Posted by: Michael at October 13, 2004 09:17 AM

I have noticed in the last ten years that almost all the polls, both national and local, are weighted in favor of the Democratic candidates. Some polls are not quite as slanted as others, but virtually all are slanted, and all in the same direction. I don't mind, for several reasons. The first is that, like the hunting allegory above, once you take biased conditions into account, you have a more accurate idea of what's going on. The second reason is that, like trash talk in sports, biased polling keeps our side energized, terrified, pumped up and determined to give our efforts 100%. By reading today's polls through the lense of my own experience, this is going to be a Bush landslide.

Posted by: MLP at October 13, 2004 12:55 PM

Actually, if we were talking about the Minnesota poll a month before the midterms, we'd be talking about Governor Moe and Senator Wellstone. Criticizing the Minnesota poll based on the '02 elections is an excersize in futility, because the Wellstone plane crash and subsequent bungled Rallemorial sparked a chaotic post-crash period in which things moved radically and quickly.

As for other polls, the Chicago Tribune poll has Kerry by 2% in Minnesota. I'd suspect the answer is probably closer to the Chicago Trib poll than the Strib poll, but both show a Kerry lead.

Posted by: Jeff Fecke at October 13, 2004 02:53 PM

Jeff,
This happened in the Minnesota Fricken Poll of almost every state wide election in the last 20 years, not just the '92 senate race. But you just contiunue to grasp on those straws there.

Posted by: Michael at October 13, 2004 04:26 PM

Oops, that's '02 of course.(must use preview, must use preview)

Posted by: Michael at October 13, 2004 04:28 PM
hi