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September 30, 2004

Wrapup

I was thinking about the debate on the way home. I don't think I could call it a win for either candidate, honestly.

Here's how I think the analysis will break:

  • Wonks will give points to Kerry for coming across fairly well - in ways that matter to wonks.
  • However, Bush fairly clearly clobbered Kerry on message; he stayed on his. He looked and sounded hesitant several times - but that's one of those things I think matters a lot more to wonks than to mainstreet. The message itself - attacking Kerry's vacilllation - was loud and clear, and repeated many, many times.

    Kerry did OK - but I think you'd have to be deluded to think he did any better than a weak draw. Bush did OK - and I think his message will play a lot better on mainstreet than it did among the professional observer class.

    I like Ed's wrapup at Captain's Quarters:

    My assessment: Personally, I don't think either man did badly, although I think that Bush mauled Kerry about the "coerced and bribed" remark and Lockhart's "Allawi is a puppet". Also, his in-debate reversal on whether invading Iraq is a mistake will get some play. I'd give the edge to Bush, but you know I'm biased. Now C-SPAN has the lame phone callers, so I'll switch to Fox instead.

    Good panel discussion on Fox. I don't agree with everything being said, but Brit Hume is leading the discussion and doing a good job of moderating it ...

    Another thought -- one of Kerry's problems is that Bush has a number of home runs he can hit, thanks to Kerry's vacillations over the past nine months, and Bush hammered on Kerry for his policy flip-flops all debate long. Kerry's counter is that Bush is too resolute, which hardly damages a leader during wartime. ...

    I missed the Republican spinmeister, but Joe Lockhart claims that the debate will be all about the "annoyed smirk". Eh? Actually, I think that sells this debate short. It actually produced substantive policy statements and differences between the candidates, and they both behaved in respectful and professional manner. Is Lockhart really that desperate? ...

    I think so. I don't think this debate will help Kerry much at all. He succeeded in not coming across as a creep, although the flipflops were definitely there. "Not a creep" never got anyone elected.

    Posted by Mitch at September 30, 2004 11:19 PM | TrackBack
Comments

I predict the MSM will call it a Kerry win and expect (wish for) a tightening of the race, but it will be Bush that will get a further bounce.
Kerry spoke eloquently but spoke nonsense.
Bush spoke haltingly but spoke clear, principled sense.

Posted by: chris at October 1, 2004 01:44 AM

Kerry says we can have both bi-lateral and multi-lateral talks with North Korea. That was not a gaffe, but a core belief. Saddam was a threat to our global security, but removing him increased the threat of global terror. That was not a gaffe, but a core belief. Homeland Security will be enhanced by increasing taxes, nevermind the economy. That's not a gaffe, but a core belief. The KGB keeps its records under Treblinka Square, you know. And Osama's in Afghanistan. And all Dubya wants to do is kill terrorists overseas and liberate millions of people from medieval tyrannical regimes. How dumb is that?

What we need is a president who knows where to find a good manicure and a tanning parlour. Nothing excites the French more than an effete, effeminate giggolo with better hair and good skin color. Afterall, didn't the mullahs in Tehran just sign a treaty with de Villipain? He's got a nice tan, you know. Even looks Iranian. That's the ticket, you see. If we just make the terrorists and nuclear weapons enthusiasts more comfortable with our appearance, they'll be nice to us right back.

Once they see we are not a threat, that we're just like them-- everyone will cooperate in giving up their sovereignty so long as the United States sets a good example. That's real leadership!! Once we surrender, everyone else will too, and --ta-dah!-- we finally win the peace.

Then we can get back to stopping global warming and cigarette smoking and finally put an end to all this keeping score business at football games. For the children, of course. We have to modernize.

Posted by: Eracus at October 1, 2004 08:49 AM

You may be wrong about the "not a creep" impression. I have a daughter who will be voting in her first presidential election, who watched the debates with her dorm mates. Their consensus: Bush was adorable, Kerry was Lurch. In fact, they thought it was amazing that the Democratic party found a nominee even duller and stiffer than Gore. One of her dorm mates is from Boston!

Posted by: mlp at October 1, 2004 07:12 PM
hi