I've posted it several times that people in my age group were trending Bush like never before (I'm 28). The polls were in my favor at the time, but are now decidedly so. Heck, my age group is the most pro Bush in the lastest polls (reading Blogs eh?!?) It seems like there are enough of my friends who would not admit it, but in "secret" are for Bush unless they know you are as well and then it spills out. 10 year reunion this last weekend, it came up a few times, and boy o' boy, Kerry would not have liked to heard it.

I don't know what the polls were going into the Nixon/Kennedy debates (being before I was born and all..) but those debates were decisive if only because Kennedy better understood how to use the medium. Other than that I can't recall debates dramatically tipping the scales in the other direction. Kerry is hosed. No one has beaten Bush in debates. They always misunderestimate his strategery.

It shouldn't be too hard to cast your mind back four years; Al Gore was leading Bush by a good four-to-five point margin going into the debates. He was trailing after the debates. Now, one can argue that Bush didn't actually successfully change the dynamic, as he lost the popular vote, but he's in the Oval Office now. That's a win.