The Flaking Begins?

First things first: One poll doth not a trend make.

We're clear on that, right?

That said, the latest CBS News Poll, conducted just after the GOP convention, has some interesting figures.

The poll tracks :

PRESIDENTIAL HORSERACE
(Registered Voters)

Bush-Cheney
Now
50%
Last week
49%

Kerry-Edwards
Now
41%
Last week
42%

I don't know that I like "registered voter" polls as much as "likely voter" polls - although "likely" voters tend to trend more right.

But that's not the big news.

The theory is, if Kerry's campaign starts to look like a lost cause to the far-left base, they'll start flaking off to the hard-left candidates that more closely reflect their ideology.

So look at this:

Nader-Camejo
Now
3%
Last week
1%

Ralph Nader may be on the ballot in some states in November, and he receives 3 percent of the vote. Without Nader on the ballot, Bush's lead is slightly smaller, at 8 points; in a two-way contest, Bush would receive 50 percent to Kerry's 42 percent.

There are lots of reasons the Nader/Camejo numbers are rising; polling inaccuracies, sampling inrregularities, the weighting the numbers get in the tabulation process...

...and, of course, more voters on the left becoming discouraged with the Whiffle-candidate's chances, and deciding to vote their consciences.

Then there's this:

Voters in 18 battleground states favor Bush over Kerry by 53 percent to 39 percent.

Again, polls are for entertainment purposes only.

But that's a dang good number.

Posted by Mitch at September 18, 2004 09:57 AM | TrackBack