September 16, 2004


Kerry's Black August seems to be still falling out.

Wouldja believe Illinois - among the bluest of the blue states - might be in play now?

The turn in this election tide could set up a political stunner. Illinois is a Democratic powerhouse in national elections, and John Kerry does maintain a small lead in our exclusive CBS 2 poll, but President Bush appears to be gaining support among voters.

Illinois no longer looks like a sure thing for Democrat John Kerry. His once 13 percentage point lead is now down to four points. That's exactly our survey's margin of accuracy, meaning the contest could be a dead-heat.

I can't vouch for the poll's accuracy, but all other things being equal, it's good news for Bush.

Almost as good, if true? New Jersey, which has been reputed to be wobbly for a while, is showing for Bush in this Survey USA poll. SUSA is commissioned by the GOP, of course, so it may be biased. As Geraghty says:

It will take another poll or two to confirm that Bush is ahead. But this last bunch of polls suggests its time to take New Jersey out of the “safe Kerry” pile and into the “toss up” pile.
Kerry's shrunk his map. "Safe" Kerry states are suddenly looking dicey - and Kerry hasn't budgeted money to defend places like Jersey and Illinois, at least not yet. The polls, for what they're worth, are generally drifting toward Bush, especially the polls that bode the best for long-term prospects (approval on matters like the war, terrorism, leadership and the economy).

OK, left - how is it that Kerry pulls this off?

And if you say "Guard records", go to the back of the class.

Posted by Mitch at September 16, 2004 06:37 AM | TrackBack

Simple--keep chipping away. The most recent polls show Kerry pulling back to near-even with Bush.

A month ago, Kerry was up by 7% and the electoral math looked impossible for Bush. Today, Bush is up by 0-4% and the electoral math looks tricky for Kerry. A month from now--who knows? If you watch the polls, Bush's lead is shrinking, not growing. He may well have peaked. This is not to say that the Crimson Chin is inevitable, but Kerry is finally doing something--calling Bush out as a failure--that he desperately needs to do.

And there's one variable that you've forgotten--Iraq. Go check Andrew Sullivan if you want a pro-war blogger who's noticed that Iraq is a mess. Kerry needs to pound that message home. You can argue about whether Kerry will do better in Iraq than Bush, but it's hard to argue he'll do worse.

Posted by: Jeff Fecke at September 16, 2004 01:17 PM

" The most recent polls show Kerry pulling back to near-even with Bush. "

Really? Which polls are those? Nearest I've seen, the only ones where Kerry is "near-even" are the ones that never registered a bounce after the GOP Convo. You remember - the ones that had all the Dems hollering "See! There's No Bounce!"

I don't think Kerry's done bleeding.

Posted by: mitch at September 17, 2004 09:14 AM