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July 23, 2004

Bushwhack

Jay Reding links to Steve Den Beste's fascinating predictions for the race.

They're interesting, and only in the least because they coincide with my own.

Reding concludes:

If I had to guess, my guess is that Bush wants the Democrats to continue to bash him mercillously and savagely. My guess is that he knows that kind of boorish behavior will alienate the swing voters that will decide this race. Whoopi Goldberg does not represent “the heart and soul of America� as Kerry and Edwards seem to think. If the tape of that ever gets out, and chances it will, it is not going to endear Kerry to the American people.

All in all, it seems as though Bush is getting ready to hang Kerry by his own petard. Of course, the Democrats, who think Bush is a blithering idiot, will invariably walk right into it. Bush has made his whole political career on being “misunderestimated� by his political opponents – and this election appears to be no different.

This election is fascinating; Republicans who aren't shaking in panic or petulantly disowning Bush over one too-moderate position or another are confident; Democrats are confident to the point of irrational exhuberance; they seem to think as Fecke does, that Kerry should start measuring himself for the Oval Office right now.

Read Steve and Jay. Fascinating stuff.

Posted by Mitch at July 23, 2004 11:46 AM | TrackBack
Comments

I think this is spot on. For confirmation, Rassumssen is reporting that about 40% believe we are safer after invading Iraq, while only 17% believe we are less safe. The ground Kerry is plowing is pretty infertile. Eventually Kerry will have start-over with a new message to the undecideds to make any headway, and the flip flop image will become more entrenched.

Posted by: rick at July 23, 2004 12:19 PM

Who's bashing whom? Bush's ad campaign has been overwhelmingly negative--nobody disputes that. Kerry's has been largely positive. Yes, there are some moonbats who are spending their time playing the tired old Bush=Hitler games, but the fact is that the Kerry campaign is not. They're actually laying out a reason to vote for Kerry--and I expect that will be the tone of the DNC.

The Democrats are done bashing GDub. He's already battered enough. The one-two punch that leads to a Kerry presidency is 1) Batter Bush, and 2) Present Kerry as a viable alternative. Step one is complete. Step two is the task at hand between now and November.

The right can sieze on Whoopi Goldberg all they want; in the real world, nobody at my (largely conservative) office has mentioned her. Nobody cares about her. People are going to make their decision on Bush and Kerry, not Limbaugh and Moore. And right now, the negativity is coming from the Bush side.

If that changes, things may be different. But don't count on it.

Posted by: Jeff Fecke at July 23, 2004 12:51 PM

Jeff, since when does describing Kerry's votes constitute a negative campaign?

And while you're at it, please define what Kerry is *for*, besides being not-Bush? Or is the strategy "Bush sucks, I don't" now the best we can hope for from the Democrats.

"John-John: We Don't Suck Like Bush" -- can't wait for the bumperstickers.

Posted by: kb at July 23, 2004 03:25 PM

I've got news for you, Jeff. Just because nobody at your office is talking about Whoopi and her Hollyweird friends' antics, don't think for a minute that what those lamers say and do doesn't have an effect. I'm not from Minnesota originally, but I've learned from painful experience that just because nobody's saying anything doesn't mean that nothing's happening.

Posted by: Kevin at July 23, 2004 03:39 PM

I suppose that in a world where the WaPo is "right-leaning", Kerry's campaign (if you add in his surrogates at MoveOn, Err America and so on) appears pretty clean.

Posted by: Anna at July 23, 2004 03:53 PM

I don't see how a message that essentially boils down to "We don't like what direction the country is headed in" counts as positivity.

Maybe I just haven't seen the right Kerry ads.

Posted by: Kris at July 23, 2004 04:36 PM
hi