Unexpected Battleground?

As Ed pointed out on Saturday, everyone expects New Jersey to be solidly Democrat.

And yet, says Jeff Jarvis, not all is well for the Dems in the swamps of Jersey.

Politics in New Jersey, while about as emotionally stable as a PMS-ing wolverine, do tend to stay left of center; call it the confluence of unions and millions of acres of suburban soccer moms.

And yet John Kerry leads George Bush by one point, in a state that Gore took by 16 points in 2000.

And why is this happening? I have a theory. It's a theory that's pretty much always valid in New Jersey politics:

Taxes.

Democratic Gov. Jim McGreevey is raising taxes. And any politician who dares to raise taxes in this state always get Abu-Ghraibed by the voters. [And, yes, I do hope that is the first use of Abu Ghraib as a verb.]

See Fritz Schrank on McGreevy's plan to raise the tax rate on people who earn over $500k by 29 percent. It's positioned as a "millionaire" surcharge (though it's only halfway to a million) and you may think that everybody else in the state who earns less would say, "F the rich." But no. It's still a tax increase. New Jersey hates tax increases. It hates tax increasers more. And they're smart enough to see that if the rich leave the state, that will have an impact on taxes, jobs, and real estate.

New Jersey Democrats are a lot like East Side Saint Paul DFLers; they vote in huge blocs, and they vote with their pocketbooks.

If only New Jersey Republicans weren't so much like Pre-Quist Minnesota Republicans...

Posted by Mitch at May 25, 2004 06:17 AM