Dane Smith is one of Minnesota's best political reporters. I don't know his personal politics, nor do I care. But he has a reputation for relative fairness and detachment.
But this piece in this morning's Strib?
Oy, vey.
Background, in case you don't live in Minnesota and you've been under a rock for the past 40 years: Minnesota traditionally trends left. It's a place where the dominant media culture calls Arne Carlson a "Republican" and doesn' giggle and blow its martini out its collective nose.
All by way of saying that the Minnesota DFL doesn't operate under the same handicaps as, say, the Utah Democratic party. They are big. They are an integral part of this state's infrastructure, controlling most of the larger city governments, the universities, the teachers' union, and the state's bureaucracy. Until about 1998, they controlled the entire state apparatus of government in a joyless, politically correct headlock.
So here's what they say about the Kerry Kampaign here in Minnesota:
Sen. John Kerry's Minnesota campaign still operates out of a tiny office at the DFL Party's St. Paul headquarters. Unlike President Bush's campaign, with 10 paid employees and spacious Energy Park headquarters, Kerry's still doesn't have a single full-time paid staffer in the state.Those plucky underdogs!Its chief operative is state director Ken Martin, at age 30, a veteran of several congressional and statewide campaigns, including Al Gore's win in Minnesota in the 2000 presidential election. Martin is working as a volunteer, and his cell phone rings to the tune of "Mission Impossible".
But Martin says the mission is not even close to impossible. He predicts the Kerry campaign will catch up soon on signs of competitiveness and viability.
"We have energy like I've never seen before in this party, 55,000 people at the precinct caucuses, five times as many as 2002, a built-in army," Martin said.
"Bring it on, George Bush," he said. "We will defend and keep Minnesota."
OK, readers: which of these scenarios is closer to the real truth - and which do you think the Strib wants you to believe:
Let's look at the rest of the plucky underdogs:
The personalities on the Kerry team are in place. The roster includes old names, up-and-coming young professionals such as Martin, and borrowed talent from other candidates and causes.Well, there's a big surprise.At the top of the pyramid is a quartet of "state chairs" that includes the most distinguished and wealthiest patrons of the DFL Party and its most experienced hands.
The foursome consists of:
Former Vice President Walter Mondale, who will lead Minnesotans as official delegation chairman to the national convention in Boston. Minneapolis attorney Sam Kaplan and his wife, Sylvia, the key financial backers and advisers of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone. Kaplan said late last week that soliciting money for Kerry's fundraising visit on Monday has been easier than he's ever seen it. "People are calling up and actually saying they feel badly that they hadn't been asked. ... In 20 years I've never seen such enthusiasm for giving." Minneapolis businessman Vance Opperman and his wife, Darin, who have been at the top of donor lists for Democratic candidates for many years. Opperman's son-in-law, David Morehouse, is national communications director for Kerry. Minneapolis attorney Mike Ciresi and his wife, Ann. He's the celebrated lawyer who helped Minnesota win a multibillion-dollar settlement against tobacco companies and ran for the Senate unsuccessfully in 2000.
Smith describes Martin:
The day-to-day running of the Kerry campaign will fall to Martin, who grew up in Eden Prairie and cut his teeth on politics as a high-school junior working for Wellstone's first Senate campaign in 1990.I already want to smack him - even if he were a Republican.
And when he says:
Minnesota and the Upper Midwest could be the Gettysburg of 2004, "the central battleground," where the race is decided, Martin said.Let me just take a moment to say that people who use metaphors drawn from warfare to describe politics should be drafted and sent overseas to clear mines. Yeah, it's the norm, but it's still disgusting.
He noted that the Twin Cities is the largest media market in three pivotal states -- Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa -- that together offer as many electoral votes, 27, as Florida.Unstated - they were all Gore states in '00.
Is the generally-excellent Smith seriously trying to pass off the idea that Kerry is an underdog in this state? Or that he's being outspent for any reason other than the Bush team sees Minnesota as a place to pull off an - note the adjective here - upset win?
Posted by Mitch at May 3, 2004 07:22 AM
Or this piece in today's Strib
http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/4754997.html
that describes how hard it is for Kerry because of all the advantages that Bush has as an incumbent. The way the paper is trying to portray the situation it would be upset if, despite all these obstacles, Kerry were to carry the state when the reality is that, even with the recent advances here by Republicans, Minnesota still swings Democratic. People like to bring up the fact that Bush only lost to Gore by two points in Minnesota in 2000, but that doesn't take into account the Nader votes. This time around many of those folks will go the "anybody who can beat Bush route" and vote Kerry. Even the election is an agonizing six months away and anything can happen between now and then, I see Kerry winning the state fairly easily with a six to nine point margin of victory.
Posted by: the elder at May 3, 2004 12:01 PM