Gubernatorial Smackdown!- I think Tim

Gubernatorial Smackdown!- I think Tim Pawlenty can win this. Stop me if I'm wrong. Here's my theory:

Jesse Ventura won the governor's race on pure personality. I doubt that his political stances, except as related to car tabs and jet ski license fees, earned him enough votes to matter in '98.

Now - Tim Penny is a pretty interesting guy, for a DFLer. He has been the "wizard behind the curtain" of the Ventura administration, along with fellow DFL refugee Dean Barkley.

I should say - he was interesting. Until he declared his candidacy. Once he did that, he started scuttling to the left faster than Tyrel Ventura diving on a loose beer.

Now, before he did that, polls were showing him neck and neck with Moe and Pawlenty. But that was then. Now, Penny has gone "pro-choice", and has softened his once-truly-moderate, even vaguely acceptable stances on gun control and taxes. He's set himself up as the tax-'n-spend sycophant to the DFL that Ventura was under his and Barkley's direction.

So he's running center-left. Moe is just left, and Green endorsee Ken Pentel is running on the absurdly-far left. (Let's assume Christine Jax isn't in the mix here, just for simplicity's sake).

Let's assume that Pawlenty keeps the 34% Norm Coleman won in 1998. Assume that the three candidates on the left split, in some combination, the remaining 66 percent in some fashion. Figure Ken Pentel, buoyed by his urban-la-la-land base in Dinkytown and the Wedge and the various colleges, keeps major-party status with a 5% showing - which comes ENTIRELY from the left, largely the DFL uber-base. Assume Moe gets the same 28% of hardcore DFLers, union guys and the professionally enraged that Humhrey got four years ago. Then, assume Tim Penny can manage to come across as something other than just another political talking head, and can get EVERY SINGLE unaccounted-for vote - which he won't, because he's Tim Penny, a mild-mannered policy wonk talking head with a few interesting ideas and a lot of political baggage - not Jesse Ventura. That's 33%.

And that's Governor Pawlenty to you, sport!

Yes, that "analysis" is hamfisted. Got a better one? Write me. I'm always looking for material!

What's a Liberal? - The traditional definition of conservative is "concerned about preserving the best of the traditional way of doing things",while liberals tend to define themselves as "concerned about civil rights".

Now, those of us who've been working on Second Amendment issues know just now selective the left is about the rights they'll support. But we always figured that, while their depredations on the Second, Fourth, Fifth, Ninth and Tenth Amendments are a matter of record, we could at least count on them to fight like rabid wolverines for the First Amendment.

Right?

Er - according to George Will, no.