Predictions - I hate to

Predictions - I hate to predict things. It'd the pastime of mediocre minds, plus I'm rarely any good at it.

But I'm going to take a shot at predicting the Second Gulf War.

Enabled by a UN resolution which is bolstered by hard evidence of al-quaeda/Hussein links, the inspectors go in. But they're barred from dozens of sites. Nonetheless, other evidence (from defectors and other intelligence) shows that those sites contain either active or dormant chemical and bioweapon development and storage, and elements of the Iraqi nuclear program. In addition, defectors warn of massive hidden caves with more nuke development. Hussein denies it - but inspectors are barred, perhaps with force.

US/UK air strikes begin - and, in the face of Iraqi intransigence, continue into a full-scale softening-up campaign against the Iraqi military. Command and Control, Air Defense, Electrical and communications facilities are bombed, as well as the most reliable military units and the array of presidential palaces. US units start to fly in, picking up equipment stored in Kuwait, or shipped in from Diego Garcia, and moving into position.

Units of 7th Special Forces group, retrained from their previous, Euro-centric mission and with linguists from 5th SFG, infiltrate Iraq, gathering groups of Northern Kurds and southern Shi'a together to start taking those areas - and start getting the measure of Iraq's capability to respond.

The failure of the final ultimatum starts the attack. Heavies - a couple of armored/mechanized divisions - outflank their opponents by driving through Saudi territory (with the Sauds' surreptitious permission) as the 101st Airborne takes the port of Basra and the road to Baghdad in a reprise of their 1991 helicopter-borne attack. The Marines do NOT invade across the heavily-mined, easily-defended beach, but rather truck in from Kuwait or helicopter in from their ships, consolidating control of Basra and readying it for use as a base. In days, the nearby Amatiyeh airbase is ready to support US airstrikes, and the port of Basra is soon open for military, then commercial traffic.

Special Forces (Rangers and the Brits' Parachute Regiment) will move to protect the oil wells, preventing massive demolition.

Hussein tries a chemical attack. Aircraft attempting to drop nerve gas are shot down well with Iraqi-held territory, while an artillery-delivered attack causes
a few casualties - US and UK troops have been training to deal with chemical attacks for 30 years. The artillery and missile sites are quickly destroyed, and
in hindsight the chemical attacks (like the first ones, in 1915 at Ypres) can be said to have done more damage to the attackers than the defenders.

Hussein also tries to draw Israel into the fray. Israel mounts a very strong, active defense, shooting down incoming missiles and intercepting and bombing terrorist camps. There are unconfirmable rumors that their Sayaret commandos and Air Force are operating against missile sites in the west of Iraq - but the
deniability is very plausible (Israel and the US use mostly the same weapons, from the F-16 to the M-16).

In the face of the US/UK blitzkrieg, Hussein withdraws to the cities. The US, UK and (by now) Turkish military heeds Patton, bypasses the cities, and digs in and waits them out - sniping with precision-guided missiles and artillery, and letting the few loyal Iraqi units swelter in their carefully-prepared and
useless fortifications. As the Iraqi military sits and waits, the allied forces conquer the REAL objectives - bases, territory, and WOMD facilities.

Most cities surrender shortly. Baghdad holds on...

The Iranians fume and bluster - but, mindful of their eroding juju in the "Farsi Street", don't do much. The "Arab Street" in Egypt and other Arab nations is in an uproar,for a month or so. Then, they go back about their business.

Pro-Hussein guerrillas are expected - but, except for the Tikrit region, are rare. Kurdish and Shi'a forces butcher all pro-hussein resistance in their areas, while US/UK troops, trained to avoid confrontation, win the hearts and minds of the "Iraqi Street" the same way they did in Germany and Japan - with medical aid and an avalanche of food.

Resitance in Tikrit is stiffer - Hussein and his inner circle are all Tikriti, and know the deguello that faces them if caught alive by Kurds, Shi'a, or even many Iraqis. This is the toughest ground battle of the campaign.

Baghdad holds for a while - but, with radio and TV broadcasts juxtaposing the relative safety and plenty of life in the liberated areas beaming into the city, and absent the sort of mass destructinon that many of the Western Left predicted, the citizens don't have the heart for it. A promise of safe passage causes an avalanche of defections and desertions - many are shot by hard-core Republican Guards trying to escape (and the Guards' triumph is short-lived, as antitank missiles immolate their positions), but many more succeed.

Other nations respond - wanting their share at the
table when the peace is adjudicated. Canada, Norway, France and Australia-New Zealand send special forces units to help with the mopping up, while Poland and the Czech Republic, eager to bolster their standing in NATO, send troops to join units from all of the above plus Russia, Denmark, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, several Gulf States and even Germany, sent to help preserve order and enforce the peace. The UN commits troops, notably Indonesians and Bengali (Moslem) regiments of the Indian Army, to help defuse religious tensions.

Within 60 days, the victory is consolidated. There are a few guerrilla strikes, and many teething pains for the infant, fragile democracy.

Oil prices spike briefly, then settle back down. They're down to pre-war levels within six weeks.

Terrorist organizations try to launch attacks - but without the long,peacetime preparation cycles, the attacks are mostly broken up.

Hussein? Whether he's found or not, his country is liberated, his WMD's are gone, the apparatus of his state is liquidated - he's as irrelevant as Bin Laden. Rumors fly, though - he was killed by a Predator, his car was crushed by an Iraqi tank, he's in Switzerland or the Sudan...people are realizing his irrelevance about the time his body is uncovered, dead from a self-inflicted gunshot, in the garden behind his bunker in a newly-surrendered Baghdad, next to the bodies of his mistress and his propaganda minister.

Within the year, Iran's theocracy teeters on the precipice, and is pushed over by violent suppression of riots in Teheran. A new revolution sweeps the city,and spreads to the countryside. The corrupt, vile Ayatollahs flee to Sudan or are put to the pike. The new, moderate Iran seeks rapprochement with the west and the newly-moderating Arab world.

In 2004, the Bush/Rice ticket, buoyed by a vibrant recovery and a foreign-policy victory, sweeps to a 65-35 victory over the Gore-Wellstone ticket (running on a "Peace through Indignance" platform), which wins only Minneapolis, Berkeley and Cambridge (although Gore spends the next 6 months demanding recounts).

Hey, Tom Clancy built an entire career out of this...

Posted by Mitch at October 13, 2002 07:58 PM