On the Ropes? - Al

On the Ropes? - Al Quaeda's in the midst of a power struggle, caused by the death of its leader, Bin Laden.

That's James Robbins' theory, anyway. And it's an interesting one.

Another symptom of system breakdown is the inability to coordinate action. The recent fall offensive is a case in point — the terrorists are pulling off some attacks, but most are not large scale (Bali being the exception), and many have been unsuccessful. Of course, al Qaeda is highly decentralized anyway, and if the objective is simply to disrupt, attacks do not have to be coordinated precisely. Yet, in the October 12 al Qaeda statement on the anniversary of our attacks on Afghanistan, "Osama" ordered that efforts should be concentrated on the U.S. and Israel, and not on other countries — while also congratulating the Yemeni bombers of the French oil tanker. A few days later a rambling statement was issued under his name in which he said either the Yemen bombing was al Qaeda's responsibility, or it wasn't; he was not telling, and it was bad for the United States either way. "We leave [the enemy] to drown in all the assumptions and possibilities," he wrote. If his intent was to confuse, mission accomplished.

These are only a few of the bewildering series of messages in recent weeks and months that indicate that al Qaeda is in turmoil. The messages are uncoordinated, sometimes contradictory, varying in tone and style. Many come out in bin Laden's name, others only refer to him, and some, significantly, do not. Last summer a statement was issued that Osama bin Laden's eldest son Sad had taken over day-to-day operations of al Qaeda while his father was recovering from illness. Sad is a twentysomething with computer skills who allegedly controls the bin Laden audio and videotape archives. ...This was followed quickly by another statement that Osama was feeling much better and was back in charge.

"I'm feeeeelling better!". Sorry. I needed a Monty Python break. Back to the article

The abortive move reportedly raised the hackles of other more seasoned al Qaeda leaders, particularly the Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda's number two. Zawahiri was reported dead by the Russian press in early October, and rushed out a few statements and an interview to show he was still alive and fighting the infidels.

Read the whole thing. It's a little complicated, but worth it.

And fun to ponder.

Posted by Mitch at October 31, 2002 03:48 PM