Shades of '79 - Unravelling,

Shades of '79 - Unravelling, Part II - More on the ongoing unravelling of the Iranian theocracy, by Michael Ledeen.

On the one hand looms the terrible regime which, fearing that it may be brought down by the kind of national insurrection that the mullahs led against the shah 23 years ago, is lashing out in an increasingly incoherent wave of thuggery, torture, and public executions and amputations. On the other, those segments of the population able to organize are demonstrating their contempt for the regime, daring the security forces to do their worst...

...Both the regime and its opponents are rapidly reaching a point of no return, and the odds certainly favor the people. The mullahs are hopelessly outnumbered, and the forces of freedom in Iran are getting braver all the time. Late last week a commander from the Revolutionary Guards announced he would not order his men to fire on student demonstrators, and was immediately replaced, but this sort of thing can be contagious, as General Jaruselski and Slobodan Milosovic found to their doom. The mullahs are constantly firing and hiring new thugs to protect them against the wrath of the people, and the question is whether or not there is a sufficient supply of killers to forestall the end of this hated regime.

This is yet another test of the courage and coherence of American leaders. President Bush has been outstanding in endorsing the calls for freedom in Iran, as has Defense Secretary Rumsfeld. It would be nice if Secretary of State Powell added his own eloquence to the chorus, especially because many Iranians fear that the State Department is still trying to cut a deal with the mullahs.

This was something I hadn't mentioned earlier this morning when I wrote on this - it's distinctly possibly that, as with the USSR, the mere show of resolution and force and disinclination to back down will be what it takes to bring down the Mullahs.

As, indeed, it may yet be in Iraq.

Posted by Mitch at November 12, 2002 01:31 PM