So Now What? - John
So Now What? - John O'Sullivan points out something that's been nagging at me ever since about 6AM the morning after the election:
American politics is a wasteland littered with the bones of parties that won "historic” midterm elections and soared confidently towards defeat two years later. Two examples are the Democrats in 1982 and the Republicans in 1994, and they point to the same bipartisan moral: Overconfidence comes before a fall.
What makes this lesson hard for the GOP to absorb in 2002, however, is that the election was a precedent-breaking one and that it really does contain within itself the seeds of a permanent realignment in a Republican direction. But since it also contains the seeds of an emerging Democratic majority, both parties have a great deal to play for? and to guard against.
What started me worrying? Trent Lott.
Why did the GOP win last week? Because we spoke to a vision that hits a chord with the "American street" - and by that I mean any American, regardless of race, class, gender or even political leaning. We campaigned on National Security, Prosperity and Safety.
So what was the first thing out of Trent Lott's mouth? Partial Birth Abortion. That's like getting a phone call from the governor five minutes before your scheduled execution, declaring your innocence and releasing you from death row...and not leaving until you finish the last meal!
What's next, Trent? Push off discussing tax cuts until we get that pressinggay marriage debate resolved?
Nobody asked me, but here's what the GOP has to do to win in '04:
- Govern to the Right: Cut taxes. Privatize Social Security. Get out of the economy’s way, and stay out!
- No, the Other Right: Stay out of the niggling social values arguments that the Democrats eat for breakfast. Take abortion off the table; move it to the states where it belongs. As good as slam-dunking Roe would be, it would squander a lot of political capital that we're going to need for, I hate to say it(yes, I'm pro-life), more important things. Perhaps 30% of the electorate votes one way or the other based on abortion. The other 70% may or may not be pro-life, but they vote based on many, many other priorities.
- Win the War: Seems obvious, right? So it should have seemed to JFK and LBJ. Doesn't always work. It has to this time, though.
- It's the Vision Thing, Stupid:Safety, Wallet, Children. Safety, Wallet, Children.
Safety, Wallet, Children.
In case you missed my point: Safety, Wallet, Children.
- Take care of the Necessities; the Luxuries will follow: Remember why the voters gave you the victory - the rest will fall into place. They gave you the victory...why? I don't want to keep seeing the same hands, people! They- the 70% that don't vote based on abortion - want the war won, the economy back on track, and the future to be a more hospitable place for our kids.
- Focus: In case you still don't get it: Safety, Wallet, Children.
- More Focus: You'll note that I didn't mention Abortion, Gay Marriage or Prescriptions.
Note to Senator Lott: Get the vision. Or find yourself a nice ambassadorship.
UPDATE: A correspendent asks me "I thought you were a conservative?", and wonders how I can justify softpedalling things like gay marriage and abortion.
Answer: Not easily.
But there are two different classes of issues here:
- Issues that people have to fix themselves, and over which we conservatives have to win people over, one at at time: Abortion, gay marriage, the gamut of "social" issues. Yes, conservative government has a role in these. But they are social issues; issues where the free will of the individual is involved (assuming they're not vulnerable or underage; I find opposition to parental notification laws for abortion to be reprehensible). Peoples' free wills have to be engaged to win these issues.
- Issues that are goverment's turf: Or that currently are, anyway; Taxes, Criminal Justice, Defense, and the future of Education (whether in or out of the government system).
As conservatives in government, we tackle the latter. As conservatives in our neighborhoods, jobs, regular lives, we have to win the former.
that's how I see it these days, anyway.
Posted by Mitch at
November 15, 2002 04:35 PM
