Deathblow? - Austin Bay, on

Deathblow? - Austin Bay, on why conquering Iraq might put Al Quaeda on the ropes:

9-11's strategic ambush sought to force America to fight on Al Qaeda's terms, to suck the United States into a no-win Afghan war, to bait the United States into launching a "crusade against Islam." Osama bin Laden believed he possessed an edge in ideological appeal, "faith based" strength against what he perceived as U.S. decadence. U.S. failure in Afghanistan would ignite a global "clash of civilizations" pitting all Muslims against America.

The key element of guerrilla warfare, of course - don't fight on your enemy's terms. Not only that, take the fight to him on your own.

Bin Laden's strategy flopped, for a slew of reasons. Chief among them, American liberty remains an ideologically powerful idea. The United States also pulled an "asymmetric" military move of sorts, using Green Beret-guided Afghan allies and hi-tech airpower to topple the Taliban.

It's a play straight from the British playbook - it's exactly how the British fought in many brushfire wars from the '50s through the '70s; SAS-led locals, bankrolled by London, did the dirty work, supported by judicious application of RAF firepower and small units of elite (Parachute Regiment and Royal Marines) infantry when muscle was needed. We saw a reprise of that strategery, only more ambitious, last winter in Afghanistan.

Bay continues to his conclusion:

The massive American build-up around Iraq serves as a baited trap that Al Qaeda cannot ignore. Failure to react to the pending American attack would demonstrate Al Qaeda's impotence. For the sake of their own reputation (as well as any notion of divine sanction), Al Qaeda's cadres must show CNN and Al Jazeera they are still capable of dramatic endeavor.

Like the Tet Offensive, Al Quaeda must "show the flag", earn its credibility.

This ain't theory. Al Qaeda's leaders and fighters know it, and the rats are coming out of their alleys. In Afghanistan, several hundred Al Qaeda fighters in the Pakistani border region have gone on the offensive. They specifically link their attacks to America's pending assault on Baghdad. Al Qaeda terror teams are reportedly moving into Western Europe.

Al Qaeda's offensive thrust in Afghanistan produces open targets for the 82nd Airborne Division. Moving and communicating terror cells are terror cells more vulnerable to police detection. Moreover, the terrorists are no longer operating on their time line, but on America's time line. The United States creates a situation where Al Qaeda either loses ideological credibility or must risk operations during a time of focused U.S. intelligence activity.

Ever see "Das Boot"? A U-Boat was safe when laying still and quiet deep underwater. It was also perfectly ineffective, hiding and not taking any offensive action. When it fires up its engines and has to go someplace...that's when it becomes vulnerable. Same for terrorists; the only purpose they serve when hiding underground is as a threat, and as fodder for left-wing armchair strategists who bay at the moon about waiting for the US to capture them before dealing with Iraq...

But the big blow to Al Qaeda will be the loss of Baghdad. Baghdad is a counter-terror intelligence trove. Saddam's fall will loosen knowledgeable tongues. Al Qaeda will have fewer alleys to inhabit.

But the big loss will be access to Saddam's WMD. A WMD spectacular is the kind of operation that can reverse Al Qaeda's international propaganda decline.

As always, read the whole thing.

(Via Instapundit)

Posted by Mitch at January 29, 2003 09:23 PM