Moyers - Some of this

Moyers - Some of this is a bit redundant to things I've posted in the last few days. Some isn't.

But I received this piece is from Bill Moyers' latest newsletter, and I thought it deserved some comment:

GOING IT ALONE?
President Bush made his case for war this week, and the first scores are in on how he did. The Gallup poll shows that by a two-to-one margin Americans who watched the speech say he made a convincing case for military action against Iraq. But the President must also bring around two other important audiences - America's old allies in Europe, and the rough and tumble Middle East. NOW reports on foreign reactions to the State of the Union and what the President is saying to win support around the world. Georgetown University professor Charles Kupchan says, "The real peril ahead is that [Bush] will do so much damage to the international system in attacking Iraq that the gains to American security achieved through the fall of Saddam Hussein will be quite small compared to the fact that the United States wakes up in a very lonely world."

Let's look at this:

Interesting.

In the past two weeks, the leaders of the UK, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Italy, Spain and Portugal signed on with the President's vision for the war with Iraq. (Prediction: look for the Dutch and Norwegians to follow suit soon enough). These eight nations represent over 240 million people within NATO, while Germany and France together comprise something like 140 million. Each of these nations' economies are doing relatively well (in some cases because they had noplace to go but up from Communism), each has a growing population and a dynamic political system.

Germany and France are both declining nations. France is important today only because of its vote in the UN, an artifact of it's position in the world in 1945.

Our erstwhile allies in the Middle East, predictably, are stepping very lightly at the moment. It's understandable. But while each puts on a very neutral face to stave off unnecessary problems with Moslem fundamentalists, they are helping in ways that truly matter far beyond the symbolic; Turkey is contributing bases and, sub rosa, their very capable troops; Jordan's well-regarded special forces are already reportedly involved in southern Iraq, alongside US, British and Australian troops.

In short, the President already HAS the support that matters; some of our "old allies" (UK, Australia), our traditional NATO allies, both overt (Denmark, Italy, Spain and Portugal) and covert (Turkey), our newer and if anything stronger NATO but former Warpac allies (the Czechs, Poles and Hungarians), and traditional but quiet friends in the region (Jordan, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait). We are opposed by a sclerotic France whose importance is only vestigial, and a Germany whose opposition is ideological (and, judging by its latest round of Länder elections in Niedersachsen, short-lived).

I predict that not only will the Dutch and Norwegians sign on - so will the Russians (they owe us, but they have to delay for diplomatic reasons - they'll come on board when Powell releases the smoking gun info at the UN), and, eventually, the French and Germans (when it becomes time to have a place at the table - probably after the bombs start falling).

So we have nine nations overtly on board now, six more that support us covertly...opposed to two that oppose us.

Who's "going it alone"?

Posted by Mitch at February 3, 2003 07:18 AM