Poll Cats - Is it

Poll Cats - Is it just me, or is the Strib spinning like mad?

Today' Strib Minnesota Poll headline reads "Support for Bush slipping". And then proceeds to tell us that things are basically...normal.

As he steers the nation to the brink of war with Iraq, President Bush faces a continuing slide in his approval ratings and a majority that disagrees with his determination to proceed against Iraq even without a new U.N. resolution, according to the latest Star Tribune Minnesota Poll.

So they start off claiming a "majority" opposes Bush on Iraq. Then, a few grafs down, the story says:

A slim but steady majority continues to back the idea of using force to remove Saddam Hussein, when the question is asked without reference to the United Nations. But when the Minnesota Poll asked respondents to consider the possibility that the Security Council might reject a resolution authorizing force, only 38 percent agreed with Bush's intention of beginning military action with the help of countries that are willing.

Fifty-six percent would prefer that war be postponed while inspections proceed and multilateral discussions continue...

...assuming the UN spikes the idea!

So in other words, the Strib is taking "A majority favors force (depending on the conditions)" and turning it into "A majority opposes force".

Strikes me as either clumsy spin or biased reporting. OK - what am I missing here?

The article goes on:

Fifty percent of Minnesotans said they approve of Bush's overall job performance -- down 12 percentage points since December, and down 37 points from the stratospheric levels his ratings reached just after the Sept. 11 attacks.

In general, the poll showed declining support for Bush's performance and his policies.

It says this without mentioning that the numbers, in any case, are still almost unprecedently high, even as they inevitably erode over time, especially given the state of the economy!

A majority of Minnesotans still approve of Bush's handling of the campaign against terrorism, but that majority is down from 64 percent in December to 57 percent now. A plurality of Minnesotans -- 47 percent -- now disapproves of Bush's handling of the economy, while 42 percent approve.

And 58 percent of Minnesotans -- the highest level since 1996 -- say the nation is off on the wrong track.

I need to dig through the raw data (assuming I can find it), but I have to wonder, when nearly 2/3 approve of the way he's handling terrorism and a slim plurality disagree with the Administration on economic issues, where that figure comes from.

Here's the part I have to wonder about:

"Everything you are finding indicates a presidency on the precipice," said University of Minneota political scientist Larry Jacobs. "He's put the country's prestige on the line and appears to be on a glide path to war, yet the country appears to be more divided than at any time during his presidency. An approval rating of 50 percent is an alarming vital sign for any presidency."

Reagan pushed through his agenda with lower numbers. I have to wonder where Professor Jacobs gets this.

So after the Strib's - and Jacobs' - gloom and doom predictions, the poll gets down to brass tacks:

The 55 percent majority that supports military action to remove Saddam is virtually unchanged since December and last August. Thirty-eight percent opposed military action. Men, Republicans, and those with higher incomes were more likely to support the use of force. Recent national polls have shown similar results.

Get that? The real number supporting Bush is 55-38! That's three points shy of a twenty point lead, and it hasn't changed since August!

So re-read the headline, and tell me how this makes sense?

Although national polls have shown support for removing Saddam, they have also shown a preference for a multilateral, U.N.-sanctioned approach, in contrast with Bush's determination to proceed with or without a new U.N. resolution.

I've seen no poll yet ask the question "do you think Hussein is playing the UN for a bunch of patsies"? Anyone?

Safe Home - the Minnesota Poll also measures how safe we feel, here in Minnesota.

A large majority (68 percent) of Minnesotans believes another terrorist attack against the United States is at least somewhat likely within the next few months. But only 10 percent said such an attack was likely to hit in the area where they live or work.

The number of Minnesotans describing themselves as very or somewhat fearful for their own safety -- which was never high -- has continued to drift down slowly. In October 2001 -- immediately after the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks -- 26 percent of Minnesotans expressed a personal fear. By August 2002, it was 23 percent, and in the latest poll, 19 percent.

Just 9 percent said they had taken steps to prepare for a terrorist attack.

Interesting, given the little burst of warnings about "soft targets" a few weeks ago, coming from everyone this side of the agent in charge of the Minneapolis FBI office on down.

Posted by Mitch at February 25, 2003 01:58 PM