Pollcats, Part II

Hot on the heels of Tuesday's spinfest, the Strib released another Minnesota Poll yesterday, measuring Tim Pawlenty's first month or so in office.

Despite the furor over cuts to Local Government Aid, Pawlenty's numbers are pretty strong:

Although 60 percent of the 845 adults interviewed Feb. 20 to 23 said that they approved of his handling of the job...

In general, Minnesotans find Pawlenty likeable and credible and are giving him the benefit of the doubt despite the harshness of some of his proposals to balance a $4.2 billion projected budget shortfall, two state political scientists said.

According to those two political scientists, Minnesotans seem to think Pawlenty's a likeable enough guy - especially compared with his predecessor:

"This guy is affable, there's no question about it," said Steven Schier, a professor at Carleton College in Northfield. "He has strong convictions and can be tart, but he's basically polite and nice, and Minnesotans like that compared to what they've seen over the past four years."

Said Lilly Goren, a professor at the College of St. Catherine in St. Paul: "There are some legitimate concerns because people are losing jobs and benefits and bus routes. But people liked him better than the other candidates [in November], and they're still feeling warmly toward him."

The administration has its two cents worth:

Pawlenty's chief of staff, Charlie Weaver, said that the results were a "ringing endorsement of him personally" and evidence "that we can fix our problems without raising taxes," a centerpiece of Pawlenty's campaign and budget strategy.

It may be a ringing endorsement, or it may be that Pawlenty's still enjoying a honeymoon period.

But evidence in favor of "ringing endorsement" includes this bit:

...approval of his handling of the projected budget deficit for fiscal years 2004 and '05 was slightly lower, at 56 percent.

"Slightly" lower being the operative word. Pawlenty's approval numbers are predictably lower on some of the issues where the budget problem impacts Minnesotans on a less abstract level: 43 percent for cuts to Local Government Aid that might lead to property tax hikes (49 percent opposed), and 31 percent on his K-12 education spending freeze and the cuts to higher education. This isn't much of a surprise - these sorts of issues are analogous to unfavorable polls about legislators; people consistently give poor marks to legislators in general, but rate their own legislators much higher. In this case, the budget cuts that are most visible to people are the ones that cause the least favorable impressions.

But it would seem Pawlenty has done a decent job of selling his program:

Support for Pawlenty appeared to be tied to self-perceived knowledge about the issues. More than half the respondents, 55 percent, said they knew "a fair amount" or "quite a lot" about the budget, while 44 percent said they knew "only a little" or "not much at all."

Among those who said they knew a lot or a fair amount, support for Pawlenty's proposals was higher on all of the major budget issues: use of tobacco money, local government aid and education spending.

Support was highest in the Twin Cities area, and among males and Republicans.

Here may be the best news for Pawlenty - his key message, that government should tighten its belt as Minnesotans are doing the same, seems to be selling, at least on the abstract level:

Tad Engstrom, 27, a carpenter from Stillwater, said he likes Pawlenty because he agrees with his message that, like families, governments can't just raise taxes and must reduce spending to survive. "We have to make cuts in our budget, and it's always worked for us," Engstrom said. "I don't agree with raising because they're way too . . . high the way they are. A lot of us are getting to the point where enough is enough."

While there's still a long way to go on this budget process, and the economy is still soft (and the poll may predate reactions to many budget cuts), it is in some ways an indicator of a watershed in Minnesota politics. For generations, Minnesotans were willing to swallow ever-higher spending, and near-endless tax increases. Now, though, after twelve years of unprecedented increases and the squandering of years of massive, tax-funded surpluses on program increases, the message of the state's right is finally getting through; enough is enough. There's no reason state government should be living any larger than its citizens.

This next few months are going to be interesing for the Administration. I'd suspect the Pawlenty administration is banking on the same thing many of us are; that the economy is going to pick up through the spring and summer, which will erase a fair chunk of the deficit. Like many households - mine included - the Pawlenty adminstration is hunkering down to get through the downturn, in a fashion to which Minnesotans are unaccustomed to seeing in their government.

If this poll is an indication, Minnesotans appreciate it.

Posted by Mitch at February 27, 2003 03:47 AM