Turkey, Again - The

Turkey, Again - The situation in Turkey is not only not as simple as the knee-jerk media (and blogophere) puts it - it's not even as simple as my own relatively convoluted perception.

We all know about last weekend's vote against US troop deployment in Turkey against Northern Iraq. As a result, a fair chunk of the US 4th Mechanized Infantry Division is lying at anchor off the port of Iskendren, instead of off-loading and getting ready to move into Kurdistan.

So what's behind all this? Why did this happen in a country that is not only a traditional US ally, but that owes us, big-time?

Several things to remember about Turkey:

• The Turkish economy suffered terribly during the first Gulf War. Leaving aside Islamist feelings in the Turkish Street, much of the opposition to the war springs from memories of the misery of that time.
  
• Their government is, constitutionally, the only secularist government in the Islamic world. This secularism has helped Turkey to become the closest thing to a liberal democracy that can be found in the Islamic world - even with all of its well-publicized problems.
  
• One of those problems; its secularist system is being challenged by the new, ruling, pro-Islamicist party, reflecting the radical Islam that is sweeping the Turkish countryside. The new party has promised to make changes to Turkey's constitution...
  
• ...which includes a provision to allow the military to stage a coup to prevent exactly this eventuality. The Turkish military is quite pro-US, and the constitution gives it a role as a check and balance against the radicalization of the government - a role it has carried out several times in the last 40 years.
  
• Their political system is, to American eyes, a very strange, convoluted thing.
  

How convoluted? Well, the defeat of the US troops initiative over the weekend...

...was actually a victory that was turned back on a technicality!

The activity today followed the dramatic vote on Saturday in which more Turkish legislators voted in favor of the American deployment than voted against it. After a chaotic interlude, Turkish officials announced that the measure had been defeated because it had not been approved by a majority of those present, as required by the Turkish Constitution. Nineteen Turkish lawmakers abstained from voting [Emphasis mine].

The final vote was 264 votes in favor to 251 against. Passage would have required 267 votes.

Turkey's lawmakers were confused as well, with some leaving the Parliament and boarding planes to return home, thinking the measure had passed. Only later, Turkish officials said today, did they learn that it had been rejected.

By the way I'm presenting a summary - read the whole article for the details. They're fascinating.

So what conclusions can we draw from this?

Turkey is a strange place - but fundamentally supportive of the US. There are chinks in this support, but there always have been.

And Turkey will come down supporting us, I think, soon. The troops will land, and drive on through.

Turkey will face a period of intense wrestling with its strong islamist minority - a struggle it will eventually win, partly because of the defeat of Iraq and eventually Al Quaeda that its upcoming action (I predict) will help to bring about.

These are not, as some bloggers put it, a bunch of döner-eating surrender monkeys.

Posted by Mitch at March 3, 2003 04:23 AM