Best Laid Plans - There's

Best Laid Plans - There's been much heat, but little light, over Peter Arnett's claims to Iraqi TV that the US "plan" is off in the weeds - a failure - and needs to be re-drawn.

Blogger and veteran Sergeant Stryker comments on "The Plan", from - here's a rarity - an informed perspective:

There's also been much speculation concerning the failure of "The PLAN." Yes, that mysterious piece of paper we depend upon for Victory. The General's Plan has failed! The Plan failed to acount for Iraqi irregulars! The Plan relied too much on blitzkrieg warfare! Supplies are running out! The Plan has failed! Defeat is upon us! Run away! Run away!

I'm here to tell you: There is no "Plan," at least not in the way most people think of it. There is no paper sitting in the center of Gen. Franks' desk with objectives and the dates they should be accomplished, with certain sentences lined-out as they are accomplished. There's nothing anywhere that says, "Take Baghdad by end of week or all is lost." What exist are thousands of matrices, cross-indexed and used by commanders and planners as decision-making aids in conducting operations. Each matrix lists, in tabular format, conditions and recommendations for action. For example:

If Condition X exists, and conditions A, C, and F are present, then proceed with R.

These matrices have been formatted and indexed in the months leading up to Iraqi Freedom and they list just about every conceivable condition that one would find in addition to the courses of action one should take in response. I'm sure that most of you who work in the business world are familiar with matrices and how they function. They allow commanders to be flexible and highly adaptable to the fluid nature of warfare by presenting options figured out months in advance, rather than having to think of solutions on the spot. And matrices aren't a novel concept unique to Iraqi Freedom. We use them in our everyday operations. So when you hear Rumsfeld or Franks saying, "We're on Plan and we've factored-in all that's happened," they're telling the truth. The Plan does not feature time-specific objectives and it isn't a checklist. It's a combination of thousands of decision matrices used to conduct operations in support of achieving the expressed goal: The removal of Hussein's regime and nullification of his ability to resist. It's also important to note that this war does not feature an "exit strategy" common to our limited operations in the past, which allowed our foes to exploit the half-measures we employed. In this war, the only exit is through Baghdad and there is no end save Victory.

Very true. Military plans - at least, good ones - are not like film shooting schedules. They're almost like very robust computer programs - allowing for all sorts of friction and SNAFUage, including, yes, unexpected resistance. The difference, of course - they don't push 1s and 0s around, they affect people, battles and, today, nations.

Everyone take a deep breath. In one week our troops advanced nearly 350 miles - which is 40% faster than armored troops are supposed to advance in ideal conditions - to the suburbs of Baghdad. Think about it - if St. Paul were Baghdad and North Dakota were Kuwait, the lead US troops would be just west of Monticello. There'd be some stiff skirmishing in St. Cloud and Alexandria, but the guys near Montecello would be threatening to move into Albertville any moment, and the bad guys moving up through Maple Grove to reinforce the defenses would be learning firsthand what it feels like to be in an oil drum being pelted with bowling balls.

Posted by Mitch at March 31, 2003 10:41 AM