Deep Breath - Let's start
Deep Breath - Let's start at the top:
It's been a busy 48 hours, not only in Iraq, but worldwide.
Remember the barbering about the Bush Administration's alleged diplomatic incompetence?
1) North Korea, after six months of sabre-rattling, has dropped most of its demands; it will engage in talks with its neighbors and the US, and its nuke program IS on the table.
2) Prominent Iranian "conservative" theocrats, including former president Rafsanjani, are proposing trying to normalize relations with the US and Egypt - something they'd soundly rejected in the past year or so. This could include a referendum - opening the decision to the "Iranian Street", which by most accounts has lost its stomach for fundamentalism, radicalism and anti-Americanism.
3) The new Palestinian Prime Minister has nominated a mostly reformist cabinet, removing or demoting many Arafat-linked hardliners. Arafat is, of course opposing the cabinet - but this story has just begun.
4) In the meantime, Ariel Sharon is offering to give up key settlements in areas that had been off the table so far. More after the link:
Now, this sort of talk is absolutely unthinkable from a "conservative" like Ariel Sharon. The man was elected on a three-item platform:
- Safety from terrorists,
- safety from terrorists,
- safety from terrorists.
Yet here he is, a week after the liberation of Baghdad, offering to give up a big chunk of his nation's anti-terrorist buffer zone...why?
Who provided the sanctuary, financing, weapons and training for the terrorists that have plagued Israel? Syria, Iran and Iraq (and the Saudis, but most of that money funnelled through the other three).
The Syrians are denying any complicity with Hussein, of course. But they're being very circumspect about it, so far.
Pure speculation: The Syrians, trying like mad to avoid problems with the US *and* save face in the Arab World, are operating through back-channels to ensure Israel and the US that the reign of terror, as far as they're concerned, is over.
What do I base this on? Nothing. This is speculation. However - see how many terrorist attacks Israel sustains in the next six months. See whether Arafat's faction in the Palestininan Authority holds water in the next few months. See whether the contingencies for the administration's Roadmap are met.
Look at the developments - and while I grant that they are all preliminary, they are all significant. They illuminate a very important point - actually, for purposes of this mailing list, two of them.
- The hawks were right. War with Iraq is already showing signs of immense *potential* political dividends; leadership in Palestine, North Korea, Iran and Israel are all making the kinds of noises we (and the "world community") have been trying to coax out of them all along.
- For purposes of argument: Rumors of Bush Administration diplomatic incompetence may have been greatly exaggerated. If we can follow up on the dividends from the war in Iraq, it *could* be one of the great diplomatic coups of all time.
Of course, we won't know anything about this for a long time. But I'm optimisitic, for a change.
(Some via Filibuster)
Posted by Mitch at
April 15, 2003 09:57 AM
