Kids in Iran - Bit

Kids in Iran - Bit by bit, it seems the regime in Teheran might be unravelling. The reports, despite the aggressive disinterest of the major media, seem to indicate that the mullahs are engaging in tactical retreats in the face of continued unrest - something that authoritarian regimes generally cannot do without grave risk to themselves.

Sullivan talks about the case for optimism albeit not glee in the Middle East, where for the first time a major Arab government is leaning on the Palestinians and Hamas.

In the meantime, in Iran, this seems to be looking less and less like the type of demonstrations du jour that occur throughout the Moslem world:

"It's scary talking to these people [the protesters]," says a seasoned political analyst reached by phone in Tehran, who asked not to be named. "There is such a determination in their eyes and their behavior. They are fearless; they are ready for combat. It's like [urban] warfare."

"They say: 'This is just the beginning, we have started it, and we are going all the way to the end,' " the analyst says. "But if you carry on the conversation, they have no idea about what the end should look like.... It is very dangerous."

In recent days, amid the din of supportive honking horns, some protesters have been matching violence meted out by vigilantes loyal to the regime with violence.

Now - all you Democrats and "moderates" who have been caterwauling on cue about the phantom WMDs - read this next bit...:

The clerical leadership blames the US - seen officially as the chief foreign meddler since the 1979 Islamic Revolution - for fomenting disorder. Iran's Foreign Ministry accused the US of exaggerating the scope of the protests by calling "a few individuals the voice of the people."

The US comments seem to be uniting hard-liners and reformists. Mehdi Karrubi, speaker of the reformist parliament, said that differences "among the children of the revolution are differences of taste but they are all united against the enemy...."

The US has made no secret of its desire for a new government in Iran. It accuses Iran of backing terrorism, pursuing nuclear weapons, harboring Al Qaeda, and encouraging anti-US forces in Iraq.

...and tell me the war in Iraq, and our presence in force in the region, isn't having a beneficial effect?

But polls have shown that some 90 percent of Iranians themselves want change, and that 70 percent want dramatic change - results that hard-line ideologues say are wildly inaccurate.

The left will respond "Hah. Where are the toppling autocracies?"

Ronald Reagan first began facing down the Soviets in 1983. His first truly substantive act was Grenada - yet another military action whose point and impact the left completely missed, an act of anti-communist resolve that did more than anything to induce at least cosmetic moderation in the Politburo (in the form of Gorbachev). The major turning point (we see in hindsight) came when Reagan faced Gorbachev down at Rejkjavik in 1986. And from then, it took five more years for the Berlin Wall to fall.

Eight years. But in that time, the world turned upside down.

In the past 20 months, the world has not turned upside down. But if you'd have said on September 10, 2001 that the Taliban would have been routed in 30 days by 100 US Special Forces, and that Hussein would be deposed and the threat of his WMDs erased forever by whatever means, and the Iranian Mullahs would be looking over their shoulders, and that Arab nations would be investing any political capital in trying to moderate PLO/Hamas, they'd have called you crazy.

The next 18 months will no doubt be fascinating.

Posted by Mitch at June 16, 2003 07:59 AM