Crack of Doom - As

Crack of Doom - As the relatively moderate Democratic Leadership Conference yells into the void that the party is swinging too far to the left (at a conference attended by none of the Nine Dwarves), the new poll by former Clinton pollster Mark Penn shows that Americans might be seen to agree.

The party still has solid support from the core of Roosevelt's coalition - union members, minorities and the working poor - said pollster Mark Penn. It also enjoys solid support from gays and Hispanics, the nation's fastest-growing minority.

But less than one-third of Americans now consider themselves Democrats, down from 49 percent at their peak in 1958. And Democrats lag well behind Republicans among other growing groups of voters whose loyalties swing back and forth between parties and who hold the key to close elections - including suburbanites, professionals and middle-class families with children. That leaves the party in a poor position to build the new coalition it needs to beat President Bush and build an enduring majority in an evenly divided country.

"In terms of the percentage of voters who identify themselves as Democrats, the Democratic Party is currently in its weakest position since the dawn of the New Deal," Penn told a gathering of the Democratic Leadership Council, a group of centrist Democrats. "Exciting the Democratic base alone will not bring enough voters into the Democratic fold."

Worrisome for the Dems - the GOP leads among everyone whose lot in life seems to be improving - which is most Americans, recession aside. And it gets worse for the Dems:

One key problem, Penn and others said, is that Democrats are perceived as catering to a political base that is losing its electoral clout in a changing country. When likely voters are asked which party they prefer, Democrats still hold an edge among many groups. Union members and gays prefer Democrats over Republicans by 43 percentage points, and African-Americans and the working poor do by 41 percentage points, Penn found.

But Republicans have an edge of 15 percentage points among suburban voters, 21 percentage points among professionals, and 29 percentage points among white-collar workers.

The Penn poll of 1,225 likely 2004 voters was conducted June 29-July 1 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

"The decline of manufacturing jobs and the shift from cities to suburbs and exurbs, and the dramatic increases in college education and white collar and professional jobs, do not favor the Democrats," Penn said.

The moderate Democrats are locked in the 1970s, thinking taxation (but not too much of it!) will solve our ills. The left - the base - is ping-ponging between the thirties and the sixties - foaming with rage at corporate America, and pursuing a policy of unilateral castration in foreign policy.

At a time when they need a Harry Truman or a John F. Kennedy, they've got eight Abby Hoffmans (Hoffmen?) and a Lyndon Johnson for good measure.

Posted by Mitch at July 30, 2003 12:42 PM