Ahnold Verzuz Za Body- Got

Ahnold Verzuz Za Body- Got an email this morning from one of an Infinite Number of Monkeys, asking the Northern Alliance about comparisons between a potential Schwartzenegger administration and the Ventura years.

Lileks beat everyone to the punch:

"If Arnold is the savior of California, I guess that means that Jesse Ventura was his John the Baptist. He was the first to show that large blunt men with muscle-centric showbiz careers could assume the governorship of a state - but that large blunt men with muscle-centric showbiz careers could assume the governorship of a state - but that’s where the similarity ends. Ventura was incapable of projecting an easy-going image; he was too suspicious, too prickly. He loathed the media. He hated the establishment in all its manifestations. He was, in essence, a biker-hippie. He never knew when to pick his fights, so he picked them all."

True, of course. Acquaintances among the press corps at the Capitol called Ventura one of the most difficult people to deal with in all of state government.

And, Lileks notes, that was a key difference between the two former musclebound actors:

Arnold is much smarter than that. It’s possible Ventura is brighter than Arnold, but Schwartzenegger instinctively grasps that simple truth Jesse could never accept: to win the game you have to play the game.

All true.

There are other key differences, though. And it's a good thing, because...

• These days, Politics is Serious Business - Ventura was elected in 1998. Minnesota was riding high in the dotcom boom - we were no San Francisco, but the economy was thriving. We had had continuous state budget surpluses for most of the nineties, and there was no hint of leaner times ahead. Politics was a fairly trivial business at the time; the biggest problem the legislature had was whether to spend the gajillion dollar surpluses on new programs, or return half a gajillion dollars to the taxpayers. People had time for larks, for trivial political pursuits.

  It was into this ring that Ventura jumped. Why did he jump?

• Because it was a Great PR Stunt - Everything Jesse Ventura ever did was for publicity. With his wrestling career over, acting was his meal ticket (it was for damn sure talk radio wasn't it); living in Minnesota, the only way to see and be seen was to create a splash. What better than to lead a quixotic campaign for governor?

  Of course, it was after election night that it got complicated, because...

• There is No Way He Ever Expected To Win - Think about it; he was a former wrestler and actor, whose only political experience was a stint as mayor of Brooklyn Park (an older suburb of Minneapolis), running with the puzzled endorsement of the Reform Party with which he shared almost no common goals (and with which he broke in a huge spat right around his inauguration). He shot from the hip, because as an outsider he could.

  How do we know? Did you see him on election night, the night of the "...we shocked the WORLD!" speech? He had that deer in the headlights look about him; that "ooooooooh, sh___________t" look common to people who thought they were mooning their roommates, but turned around to notice their girlfriends and their parents watching. More telling - although he ran as a libertarian conservative (promising lower vehicle and jet-ski fees, concealed-carry reform, and the surplus refunded at the rate of "$1000 for every man, woman and child in your house"), the moment he was elected he appointed Dean Barkley and Tim Penny - former DFL moderates who'd been attracted by Ross Perot's Reform Party's "Liberal Lite". They served as the wizards behind the Ventura curtain; the libertarian conservative candidate governed like DFL Lite.

  And once the situation changed - the economy started tanking in 2000, halfway through the administration - and when it did, Ventura was only too happy to get out of the governor's office. It wasn't fun anymore, and it had the chance to turn into really bad PR for him.

So how is Scwartzenegger different?

• Times are tough these days - and as far as being a governor goes, no place is tougher than California. Nobody's going to seriously run as a lark.

  Of course, lots of people are running as a lark, but they are unlikely to have the endorsement of the Republican Party.

• It's Not Like Arnold Needs the Publicity to keep his acting career going. The man's film career is as indestructable as a Terminator. If he survived "Jingle All The Way", he doesn't need a chimeric political race to keep himself afloat.

• He Could Win, and He Knows It - While Jesse Ventura - wild-card from an off-brand party - had to have known he was the darkest of dark horses, Schwartzenegger will be running under the banner of California's #2 party (although not every Republican is thrilled about it), is on the Hollywood "A" list, and has to have absorbed some political savvy from his inlaws (for better or worse). He's in a whole different league from Ventura. Personally, too - Schwartzenegger is by all accounts witty, urbane, polished, someone who can pass as a politician, who is wired in a way that might allow him to get some respect from the politicians he'll need to work with. He's the polar opposite of the loud, combative, just-not-that-politically-bright Ventura - closer to Ronald Reagan than to the Crusher.

  And...

• If He Wins, It'll Matter. - Unlike Minnesota, 1998, the situation in California is beyond dire. Who'd volunteer for that job if he really, really didn't want to do something about it? The risks are huge - tackling the job and cratering would mean the end of any future political aspirations (Gray Davis stock is currently a strong "Sell For Pennies). Success, of course, would be another matter.

  Finally...

• What You See is Fairly Likely What You'll Get - While Ventura the Outsider got to say pretty much anything he wanted (because he never expected to win!), and it all got retracted the moment he was elected, Schwartzenegger represents a party whose platform is fairly well-known. Granted, he's the far moderate wing of the California GOP, but it's less likely Arnold will be able to freestyle to anywhere near the extent Jesse got away with.

In Minnesota in 1998, a bunch of Minnesotans who rarely darkened a polling station came out to elect the class clown as homecoming king on a lark, at a time when larks were still funny.

In California in 2003, the situation is desperate, and Cali needs something neither Gray Davis nor Jesse Ventura ever were - a leader who can get a team into office that can sweep up Gray Davis' mess.

Jesse Ventura was a statewide practical joke that got out of hand. Whomever wins the recall will be in charge of keeping the world's fifth-largest economy from getting sold at a sheriff's auction.

NORTHERN ALLIANCE UPDATE: In addition to Lileks, we're currently awaiting Powerline's take on this. Fraters has yielded their time (it's the web, guys!), and the SCSU Scholars are still at their 8AM classes.

EMAIL UPDATE: Longtime Shot corresopondent JM writes

I agree with everything you wrote about Ventura's time as governor, but I think you and others discount how hard he tried to be a Good Governor.

A fair point. I think he tried his best to reconcile "being a good governor" with the image he chose to project - the "biker/hippie" (thanks, James) populist who was out to kick ass and take names.

And while I have no problem with on the job training, I think he picked the wrong teachers. Tim Penny and Dean Barkley made Reform-y noises, but when you scratched beneath the surface, they were Democrat pretty much to the core - as Penny showed us during his campaign to succeed Ventura last year.

I didn't care for certain positions he took because they reflected his belief that Good Governors are centrist technocrats. His de facto rejection of his supposed libertarian beliefs was my biggest complaint.

However, like Wellstone, I have to give the guy credit for trying to do a Good Job. The people he hired as advisors were good as centrist technocrats go. And as much as I disagree with his promotion of the Light Rail boondoggle, I really think he thought it was a Good Thing, something that Good Governors support.

The road to Hell is paved with...er, light rail, I guess.

Unlike Wellstone, however, Ventura was woefully underqualified for the position. He didn't and refused to understand how political decisions are made and that the participants see themselves and their jobs as important. With regards to the press, in particular, this was his downfall.

Ventura always thought he could lead with his chin, and his populist cachet would save him. With someone with a genuinely durable base, it might have worked. But I suspect most of the people who made their first and last visits to the polls to vote for Ventura probably weren't accustomed to calling or writing their representatives.

And you can't call people - like the press - "Jackals" too many times before they start to take it personally.

I think Schwartzenegger knows to dodge a lot of the bullets his pal Jesse tried to catch with his teeth.

Posted by Mitch at August 7, 2003 07:18 AM