The Latest - The Minnesota

The Latest - The Minnesota Poll has tended to be as accurate as Baghdad Bob, only not as entertaining.

You remember the Minnesota Polls before the 2002 midterm elections? The Democrats and the Strib certainly hope you don't.

The Strib is at it again, saying the Economy takes its toll on Bush:

"A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll found Bush's job approval rating stands at 49 percent, down from 63 percent in April, when Minnesotans, along with the rest of the nation, rallied behind a president leading a nation in wartime. Bush's approval rating now is 1 point below the rating he received in February, but far lower than his high of 87 percent after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

As it has been throughout his presidency, Bush's approval rating is lower in Minnesota than it is nationwide. An ABC News poll this week found that 56 percent of Americans approved of the way he is handling the job of president.

Look for the Democrats to latch onto this like it's the last bag of Cheetos at a Dave Matthews concert.

As the presidential campaign gathers momentum, the new poll numbers potentially pose a peril for Bush. Support for his performance is relatively weaker among women, and Bush appears to have alienated a substantial number of the conservatives who form the core of his support.

Bush has been alienating conservatives since his name was first broached as a potential candidate for the presidency!

The poll - and the Strib - get two things wrong here:

• Bush has been adept at defusing conservative ire (for better or worse) throughout his political life, and
• The GOP, being a genuine big tent party, will differ on things - and then make the necessary compromises to live in the big tent and win the election. Which is not to say that Bush is a conservative's dream; far from it. But this sort of fractiousness, which would have paralyzed a Democrat (or DFL) effort, will be sorted out by election time.

'This is the same trend you're seeing in most places around the country,' said Larry Jacobs, a University of Minnesota professor who specializes in public opinion polling.

'This is just a snapshot, and it may work out for him 14 months from now, but at this point, he's got a problem,' Jacobs said. 'He's in dangerous territory, because 50 percent approval is where the alarms go off.'"

Unstated by Jacobs; Bush's biggest problems at the moment is that He's been on vacation. When he's in Crawford, the Democrats have the media all to themselves. His numbers always take a hit. Always.

Watch for the spin - and then put it in perspective.

Posted by Mitch at September 12, 2003 09:39 AM