Not Over

Not Over - Was it the Basque separatist group ETA? It seems out of character:

"If the attack was carried out by ETA, it could signal a radical and lethal change of strategy for the group that has largely targeted police and politicians in its decades-long fight for a separate Basque homeland."

On the other hand, it looks as if ETA had been changing its MO anyway:

The government said ETA had tried a similar attack on Christmas Eve, placing bombs on two trains bound for a Madrid station that was not hit Thursday.

"ETA had been looking for a massacre," said Acebes, the interior minister. "Unfortunately, today it achieved its goal."

The Interior Ministry said tests showed the explosives used in the attacks were a kind of dynamite normally used by ETA.

The bombers used titadine, a kind of compressed dynamite also found in a bomb-laden van intercepted last month as it headed for Madrid, a source at Aznar's office said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Officials blamed ETA then, too.

Was it Al Quaeda? The splinter group claiming responsibility is sorta the Cliff Clavin of terrorist groups:

The United States believes Al-Masri [an Islamist splinter group that claimed responsibility for the Madrid massacre] sometimes falsely claims to be acting on behalf of al-Qaida. The group took credit for blackouts in the United States and London last year.

Two bigger questions: How will Europe (and John Kerry, our first European candidate) treat this? If it does turn out to be ETA, will they do their best to compartmentalize this attack into a "Not Al-Quaeda" box? Or will they draw the conclusion that ETA has been emboldened by having seen what terrorists can accomplish - perhaps with their help (Carlos the Jackal reportedly dealt with ETA, and Al Quaeda's presence in Spain has played a key part in the 9/11 investigation).

And how will Spain and Europe react? Like one of their members has been attacked?

Any bets?

I'm digging for something to say about Spain and the Spaniards. They are such an admirable nation in so many ways: while many nations had bloodthirsty tinhorn dictators, Spain's stepped down and turned his nation over to a constitutional monarchy. Franco was that most misunderstood of characters - the idealistic authoritarian. Popular history lumps him in with Hitler - who supported him in his destruction of the Communists in the Spanish Civil War - and Franco the pragmatist made nice with the Germans during the war - but Franco detested Hitler, according to Paul Johnson. Franco sought the preservation of Spain, and disdained Hitler's neo-Leninist rantings about radically transforming society. Toward the goal of preserving Spain, Franco ruthlessly suppressed the leftists who he saw as the main threat to Spain - but Spain accepted tens of thousands of Jewish refugees from the rest of Europe. Franco ruled Spain with an iron fist - and, alone among dictators, guided Spain toward a date with a promise of freedom that, in the end, he kept.

And the Spaniards took the ball and ran with it. They joined NATO in the early eighties - not because they feared Communist neighbors, but because they believed contrbuting to the common defense of their neighbors was the right thing to do (yeah, yeah - to get US aid, too). They have taken their place in NATO operations, and the first Gulf war, and now Iraqi Freedom. Their Navy (one of the biggest left in Europe) was one of the most active in supporting ours in the run-up to Iraqi Freedom, helping enforce the blockade of Iraq.

When at a loss for what to say, I often turn to Lileks:

It makes me admire the Spanish more than ever, I’ll tell you that: after 9/11 the media – the American overclass – was all about pain and sympathy and vigils and candles; vengeance and retribution were not invited. Stand up and strike back was not a theme of those awful hours after 9/11. Partly because we didn't know who to hit. Partly because we realized eventually that we would be striking back, hard, soon. The national character best expressed itself by a brief period of introspective mourning, not brutish demands to level half the planet. Bush did not call for massive demonstrations to approve his desire to defeat terrorism. In American terms, that would have been unseemly. Grief first. Then war.

Spain doesn’t have the luxury of 200 years of Constitutional rule. Young adults sitting around the dinner table look at parents who grew up under Franco; they might value freedom more than we do. We cannot possibly imagine losing it. They have heard stories of how quickly it can be lost.

It'd be trite to say "My thoughts are with Spain" today. The thoughts of every person with a living soul are with the Spaniards.

Posted by Mitch at March 12, 2004 06:53 AM