Terrorist Strategy?

Terrorist Strategy? - It's occurred to me - probably much later than to most people - that the US is probably the safest place in the world to be right now, when it comes to terror. It's Western Europe, Japan and South Korea where I'd be nervous.

I'd lay money on this: the terrorists know that an attack on the US, the UK or Australia right now would make their lives much harder; at best, the Bali nightclub bombing reinforced Australia's will to fight; the UK weathered decades of IRA bombs, and has a superb counterterrorist intelligence apparatus (because of those IRA bombs). Above all, they have to know that an attack in the US right now would reinforce George Bush's presidential campaign.

Their best hope for four years of undeterred free worldwide reign is to get Bush out of office.

That means exactly what many commentators have said: trying to create more Spains; "swing nations" in the war on terror, especially ones with fragile conservative governments that are barely holding out against socialist, appeasenik oppositions, like Italy.

The more of those get picked off and leave the coalition, the more credible John Kerry looks. The more nations defect, the more Kerry's fraudulent claims of Bush's diplomatic incompetence will resonate with that segment of the swing vote that is illiterate enough in world affairs to believe in the virtues of multiateralism for its own sake.

So I'd say we can lower the threat level to "Green" until the first weekend in November.

After that? Well, it's then that our choice for President will really count.

More on why we, as a nation of free people, cannot afford John Kerry as a president as the week goes on.