Start the Sanity!

Start the Sanity! - A common feature among many lefty blogs, both big and small, is a near-maniacal obsession with the daily dip and swoop of the polls. Kos even has each of the major polls' latest results lined up in the margin of his blog, like stock tickers.

I've always felt this obsession with polls was wrong-headed to the point of comical; when polls the day before the 2002 elections were giving Walter Mondale a win over Norm Coleman, then what do you say about polls six months early?

Deacon from Powerline says it:

In essence, the advice is (1) pay most attention to polls about President Bush's approval rating and (2) among the head-to-head polls, focus on those that are limited to likely voters and that include Nader in the mix. With respect to approval ratings, the RCP rule of thumb is "an over 50% job approval for the President should translate into a Bush victory. A 45% - 49% job approval will mean a close race, but I would give President Bush the advantage. A 40% - 44% job approval for the President would translate into a dead heat race, and below 40% and you would have to give the advantage to Kerry." As of Saturday Bush's RCP Average job approval is at 49.6%.

Read the whole thing - although I've just quoted most of it - as well as the Real Clear Politics piece it links.

Posted by Mitch at April 12, 2004 06:20 AM