Shot In The Dark - Politics and Current Events in Minnesota and Beyond

Tuesday, October 15, 2002

Sister Doin' It For Herself - A Pittsburgh woman with a concealed pistol permit ended the career of a serial rapist yesterday.

As the Instapundit asks - why isn't this getting all sorts of media attention?

The eminently sensible Eugene Volokh (a law professor at UCLA) says this about this incident, and its relation to the concealed-carry debate:
The debates about concealed carry laws, and about gun control generally, ought not, I think, be fought based on anecdotes, whether pro-gun-rights or pro-gun-control. One can only find out the merits of a policy by looking at aggregate data, plus whatever moral or constitutional logic that one thinks is relevant; in a nation of 280 million people, there are going to be isolated incidents that fit virtually any profile.

Nonetheless, I've generally found that even logically and empirically sound arguments work best if they also include some specific incidents as illustrations -- that just seems to be the way the human mind works. There are indeed plenty of defensive gun uses each year; there's a hot controversy about how many there are (the estimates range from just under 100,000/year to 2.5 million/year), but there certainly are lots of them. And this case seems like a very good illustration of this phenomenon.

And it's also just good to hear about, I think.
All food for thought as the concealed-carry debate spools up for another run here in Minnesota.
posted by Mitch Berg 10/15/2002 09:52:06 AM

Bali - Ralph Peters on why the Bali attack was a sign of terrorist desperation:
The good news is that the terrorists have bitten the hand that tolerated them, even if it didn't quite feed them. Insecure and wary, President Megawati Sukarnoputri has been timid in facing up to Indonesia's terrorist problem, and many Indonesians have been in denial. There has been no end of halfhearted claims that there was no real threat from Islamic extremists in Indonesia, that al Qaeda had no presence, and that Jakarta could mind its own affairs, thank you.
The paradox is that Indonesia really has not had--and still does not have--a major terrorist problem on the scale of many other Muslim countries. The Bali bombings were acts of frustration and desperation, not of strength. This largest of Muslim nations has a population overwhelmingly at peace with its various laissez-faire versions of Islam. A relatively small percentage of Indonesians support Islamic extremism even passively, a situation chronically disheartening to the fanatics.

Indonesia is a country of 210 million with a 90% Muslim majority that produces good beer and likes to party (most young Indonesians tend to hear only the first three letters of the word "fundamentalism"). Nubile Western pop singers are markedly more popular than Osama bin Laden, and the only anti-Americanism I encountered personally was so superficial it couldn't survive a handshake.

But these are the very qualities hateful to the fundamentalist extremists, and the Megawati government's passivity has encouraged them to believe that they could act with impunity. Now the terrorists have overreached, as their comrades did in New York and Washington. The crimes they committed on Bali were so ferocious that they cannot be denied or explained away. More importantly, they were a severe embarrassment for the government and the country. And public shame is anathema in Indonesian society. The attacks hit wallets, too, which is a far worse idea in corrupt states than in more orderly ones.
The attacks were against a wide variety of "sins" - Austrialian support of intervening in Iraq plus their presence in Afghanistan, Australian suppression of the Moslem genocide of Christians in East Timor, Bali's Hindu majority, and the "decadence" of the Kuta economy, which is sort of the Ibiza of the southwest Pacific.

Of course, hitting a lot of enemies makes a lot of enemies very angry. And the Australian SAS is every bit as nasty an enemy as our Delta Force...
posted by Mitch Berg 10/15/2002 07:35:01 AM

Sniper Update - This appeared, on Page 22 of this story about the sniper:
Authorities in Baltimore, meanwhile, seized a white van and found an assault rifle, sniper manual and ammunition similar to the .223 bullets used in attacks that have killed eight people and wounded two others, WBAL-TV reported.

MSNBC reported that a tarot card was found in the van and a sign on the dashboard read "Gihad in America." A tarot card was also found at one of the shootings.

The van's owner was being questioned by police Monday night.

"At this time, the task force believes this is not related to our sniper incidents," said Louise Marthens, a Montgomery County police spokeswoman.
Why would anyone conclude that it was?

Police are reportedly searching for an "olive-skinned" suspect.
posted by Mitch Berg 10/15/2002 07:27:39 AM

Sniper Update - This appeared, on Page 22 of this story about the sniper:
Authorities in Baltimore, meanwhile, seized a white van and found an assault rifle, sniper manual and ammunition similar to the .223 bullets used in attacks that have killed eight people and wounded two others, WBAL-TV reported.

MSNBC reported that a tarot card was found in the van and a sign on the dashboard read "Gihad in America." A tarot card was also found at one of the shootings.

The van's owner was being questioned by police Monday night.

(AP) Police officers fan out to seach the are next to a Home Depot store near Seven Corners, Va, Monday,...
Full Image

"At this time, the task force believes this is not related to our sniper incidents," said Louise Marthens, a Montgomery County police spokeswoman.
Why would anyone conclude that it was?

Police are reportedly searching for an "olive-skinned" suspect.
posted by Mitch Berg 10/15/2002 07:27:38 AM

Monday, October 14, 2002

Settled - The Pawlenty campaign has reached a settlement with the Campaign Finance Board.
posted by Mitch Berg 10/14/2002 09:44:36 PM

Gun Patrol - According to John Lott, gun control is again on the defensive.
posted by Mitch Berg 10/14/2002 02:25:57 PM

Wichita vs. Press vs. Oprah- I've been following the Wichita murder case, where two Afro-American brothers are charged with the killings of five people.

Since the beginning of this case, there have been questions: Why is it not being treated as a hate crime? (The victims were white, and were tortured and sexually humiliated before being slain, execution-style). This article, though - in the Washington Post - ascribes all questioning to "neo-nazis" and "white supremacists", ignoring the wide swath of opinion that wonders why this is not being considered a hate crime, on par with the Byrd dragging-murder case in Texas.

And, for a final, gaggy postlude - the superintendant of the school district for which two of the victims taught had this to say:
"That was kind of closure for us, and it was a good closure," [Superintendant Jim] Markos said. "Now it was reopened again with the trial."
Wow. Hope that seeking justice for the murders of your colleagues, and three other people, doesn't upset anyone's precious "closure".

It's an Oprah, Oprah world out there.
posted by Mitch Berg 10/14/2002 01:20:42 PM

Bali - The official death toll is hovering around 180, with many missing. Most of the dead and missing so far are Australians (14 confirmed but nearly 200 still missing), with many other nationalities thrown in as well.

The nightclub involved is in a Hindu area of mostly-Moslem Indonesia. Indonesia's Moslems are, however, largely very moderate. It's suspected the bombing is largely the work of foreigners in Al-Quaeda (although that's just a theory so far).

It's heart-rending to read the Sydney Morning Herald's coverage of the atrocity - it's like deja vu, it feels like our own papers on September 11. And no wonder - even if half the missing Ozzies turn up safe, that's nearly 120 dead. In proportion to our population, that's the same as nearly 1,500 American dead (their population is about a twelfth that of the US). Half the magnitude, in proportion, of our 9/11 death toll, in other words.

And some Australians are starting to genuinely feel that we are all in it together, and that the left's apologists for Islamofascism - here, in Australia, and in Europe - are deluded.
Whatever personal positions are held about Bush, Blair and John Howard, contemporary terrorism amounts to an attack on Western civilisation. The sooner this is understood, the sooner the likes of [leftist Australian commentator Michael] Leunig will recognise that bin Laden is one of those brothers who, if given the chance, commits fratricide; before, during or after Christmas.
So this past week, we've seen
Australia attacked by Al-Quada-linked terrorists,
a French oil tanker attacked by an Al-Quaeda-linked suicide boat, a la the Cole
Welcome to the club, everyone.
posted by Mitch Berg 10/14/2002 01:04:56 PM

Definition: Limo Liberal - Mary McGrory's column in the WashPost spells out the Sheen-iest of reasons to avoid war: it spoils vacations.
posted by Mitch Berg 10/14/2002 12:51:26 PM

Cops and the Mentally Ill - Advocates for the mentally ill are up in arms over the killings, over the past decade, of several mentally-ill people in the Twin Cities.

Advocates managed to get the Minneapolis Police Department to set up a special squad to deal with violent, mentally-ill people. That group has had two major, widely-publicized setbacks - the shooting of Abu Jeilani last summer, and the death of Officer Melissa Schmidt (and a mentally-ill perpetrator) later in the summer.

Now, the Saint Paul PD is coming under fire from the same band of advocates. Chief Finney seems to be unimpressed with Minneapolis' response, and is holding tough on his current model. Currently, SPPD officers don't receive any specialized training after the police academy.

Advocates for the mentally-ill seem to ignore the fact that all of these shootings started with a mentally-ill person charging at a cop with a deadly weapon. It gets frustrating talking with them - because it's always the story. "Cops need special training", they'll say, and "nobody needed to die". Cops'll respond "The mentally-ill person was ten feet away and charging with a samurai sword" - which the advocates ignore in responding yet again.

Hard to know exactly where to come down on this one.
posted by Mitch Berg 10/14/2002 11:39:33 AM

Peace in Hussein's Good Time - All of the scenarios that could avert a US invasion of Iraq depend on Iraq opening up for unfettered inspections.

The left is fooled, of course - too many of them seem willing to take the Iraqi government's word at face value.

But their word, says Richard Spertzel, is worthless.
Iraq is still insisting that it obliterated its WMD programs and that it has no weapons of mass destruction. One should note, however, that it has not stated that it has no WMD programs. How, then, can Iraq account for the reviews of the international experts � who held discussions with whomever the Iraqi side wished to bring to both the sessions in 1998 and the U.N.-convened panels in 1999?

Iraq has not given up its pursuit of WMDs. Until it does, there is little hope for inspections to succeed.
Unbelieveably, under the threat of US action, the delaying and diplomatic gamesmanship has begun again.
posted by Mitch Berg 10/14/2002 10:57:04 AM

Polling - According to Zogby, the Gubernatorial race shapes up like this:

Pawlenty: 30%
Penny: 27%
Moe: 25%
So - perhaps Pawlenty will survive, maybe even benefit from, last week's kangaroo-court lynching.

Zogby also shows Jeb Bush leading Bill McBride by three points - within the margin of error.

posted by Mitch Berg 10/14/2002 10:39:50 AM

Moore - It's not hard to find conservative critics of paleoleftist filmmaker and polemicist Michael Moore.

Now, even some of his sympathizers are getting the picture. Steven Whitty, who describes himself as sympathetic to much of Moore's politics, writes this for the Newark Star-Ledger, wondering about Moore's tendency to make absolutely everything personal :
I am beginning to wonder if it is all personal, although not quite in the way Moore imagines. And I am beginning to believe that "Bowling for Columbine" [Moore's new movie] may be the movie Michael Moore was meant to make all along -- a story about how Americans never see the real enemies hiding among them, all helpfully pointed out by a man who's never had trouble keeping track of his.

posted by Mitch Berg 10/14/2002 10:32:28 AM

No, Really! - Al-Jazeera is quoting a press release purportedly from Bin Laden, in which the allegedly-still-alive terrorist leader sends kudos to the terrorists who blew up the Bali disco, suicide-bombed the French tanker Limburg, and shot the Marine in Kuwait.

No video, of course - but Al-Jazeera's staff said it looked like Bin Laden's signature.

In the meantime, sources are claiming Bin Laden will appear on TV soon.

Let's see - terrorist groups have access to experts in forgery for passports and other travel papers - d'ya suppose there's a possibility it's fake?

When US SOCOM claimed that Bin Laden was dead, I was skeptical. I'm coming around to about 50-50, now.
posted by Mitch Berg 10/14/2002 10:24:13 AM

Sunday, October 13, 2002

Predictions - I hate to predict things. It'd the pastime of mediocre minds, plus I'm rarely any good at it.

But I'm going to take a shot at predicting the Second Gulf War.

Enabled by a UN resolution which is bolstered by hard evidence of al-quaeda/Hussein links, the inspectors go in. But they're barred from dozens of sites. Nonetheless, other evidence (from defectors and other intelligence) shows that those sites contain either active or dormant chemical and bioweapon development and storage, and elements of the Iraqi nuclear program. In addition, defectors warn of massive hidden caves with more nuke development. Hussein denies it - but inspectors are barred, perhaps with force.

US/UK air strikes begin - and, in the face of Iraqi intransigence, continue into a full-scale softening-up campaign against the Iraqi military. Command and Control, Air Defense, Electrical and communications facilities are bombed, as well as the most reliable military units and the array of presidential palaces. US units start to fly in, picking up equipment stored in Kuwait, or shipped in from Diego Garcia, and moving into position.

Units of 7th Special Forces group, retrained from their previous, Euro-centric mission and with linguists from 5th SFG, infiltrate Iraq, gathering groups of Northern Kurds and southern Shi'a together to start taking those areas - and start getting the measure of Iraq's capability to respond.

The failure of the final ultimatum starts the attack. Heavies - a couple of armored/mechanized divisions - outflank their opponents by driving through Saudi territory (with the Sauds' surreptitious permission) as the 101st Airborne takes the port of Basra and the road to Baghdad in a reprise of their 1991 helicopter-borne attack. The Marines do NOT invade across the heavily-mined, easily-defended beach, but rather truck in from Kuwait or helicopter in from their ships, consolidating control of Basra and readying it for use as a base. In days, the nearby Amatiyeh airbase is ready to support US airstrikes, and the port of Basra is soon open for military, then commercial traffic.

Special Forces (Rangers and the Brits' Parachute Regiment) will move to protect the oil wells, preventing massive demolition.

Hussein tries a chemical attack. Aircraft attempting to drop nerve gas are shot down well with Iraqi-held territory, while an artillery-delivered attack causes
a few casualties - US and UK troops have been training to deal with chemical attacks for 30 years. The artillery and missile sites are quickly destroyed, and
in hindsight the chemical attacks (like the first ones, in 1915 at Ypres) can be said to have done more damage to the attackers than the defenders.

Hussein also tries to draw Israel into the fray. Israel mounts a very strong, active defense, shooting down incoming missiles and intercepting and bombing terrorist camps. There are unconfirmable rumors that their Sayaret commandos and Air Force are operating against missile sites in the west of Iraq - but the
deniability is very plausible (Israel and the US use mostly the same weapons, from the F-16 to the M-16).

In the face of the US/UK blitzkrieg, Hussein withdraws to the cities. The US, UK and (by now) Turkish military heeds Patton, bypasses the cities, and digs in and waits them out - sniping with precision-guided missiles and artillery, and letting the few loyal Iraqi units swelter in their carefully-prepared and
useless fortifications. As the Iraqi military sits and waits, the allied forces conquer the REAL objectives - bases, territory, and WOMD facilities.

Most cities surrender shortly. Baghdad holds on...

The Iranians fume and bluster - but, mindful of their eroding juju in the "Farsi Street", don't do much. The "Arab Street" in Egypt and other Arab nations is in an uproar,for a month or so. Then, they go back about their business.

Pro-Hussein guerrillas are expected - but, except for the Tikrit region, are rare. Kurdish and Shi'a forces butcher all pro-hussein resistance in their areas, while US/UK troops, trained to avoid confrontation, win the hearts and minds of the "Iraqi Street" the same way they did in Germany and Japan - with medical aid and an avalanche of food.

Resitance in Tikrit is stiffer - Hussein and his inner circle are all Tikriti, and know the deguello that faces them if caught alive by Kurds, Shi'a, or even many Iraqis. This is the toughest ground battle of the campaign.

Baghdad holds for a while - but, with radio and TV broadcasts juxtaposing the relative safety and plenty of life in the liberated areas beaming into the city, and absent the sort of mass destructinon that many of the Western Left predicted, the citizens don't have the heart for it. A promise of safe passage causes an avalanche of defections and desertions - many are shot by hard-core Republican Guards trying to escape (and the Guards' triumph is short-lived, as antitank missiles immolate their positions), but many more succeed.

Other nations respond - wanting their share at the
table when the peace is adjudicated. Canada, Norway, France and Australia-New Zealand send special forces units to help with the mopping up, while Poland and the Czech Republic, eager to bolster their standing in NATO, send troops to join units from all of the above plus Russia, Denmark, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, several Gulf States and even Germany, sent to help preserve order and enforce the peace. The UN commits troops, notably Indonesians and Bengali (Moslem) regiments of the Indian Army, to help defuse religious tensions.

Within 60 days, the victory is consolidated. There are a few guerrilla strikes, and many teething pains for the infant, fragile democracy.

Oil prices spike briefly, then settle back down. They're down to pre-war levels within six weeks.

Terrorist organizations try to launch attacks - but without the long,peacetime preparation cycles, the attacks are mostly broken up.

Hussein? Whether he's found or not, his country is liberated, his WMD's are gone, the apparatus of his state is liquidated - he's as irrelevant as Bin Laden. Rumors fly, though - he was killed by a Predator, his car was crushed by an Iraqi tank, he's in Switzerland or the Sudan...people are realizing his irrelevance about the time his body is uncovered, dead from a self-inflicted gunshot, in the garden behind his bunker in a newly-surrendered Baghdad, next to the bodies of his mistress and his propaganda minister.

Within the year, Iran's theocracy teeters on the precipice, and is pushed over by violent suppression of riots in Teheran. A new revolution sweeps the city,and spreads to the countryside. The corrupt, vile Ayatollahs flee to Sudan or are put to the pike. The new, moderate Iran seeks rapprochement with the west and the newly-moderating Arab world.

In 2004, the Bush/Rice ticket, buoyed by a vibrant recovery and a foreign-policy victory, sweeps to a 65-35 victory over the Gore-Wellstone ticket (running on a "Peace through Indignance" platform), which wins only Minneapolis, Berkeley and Cambridge (although Gore spends the next 6 months demanding recounts).

Hey, Tom Clancy built an entire career out of this...

posted by Mitch Berg 10/13/2002 07:58:02 PM

Berg's Law of Liberal Iraq Commentary:

In attacking the reasons for war, no liberal commentator is capable of addressing more than one of the justifications at a time; to do so would introduce a context in which their argument can not survive