It’s finally Election Day and we can all breathe easier now that we won’t have to see Angie Craig’s alternating rictus grin\/contorted face of rage multiple times a day on television, social media and other media. But will we see Craig going forward? While I sincerely hope not, it’s difficult to know. So let’s hazard a few guesses on how it will play out today and in the coming days.<\/p>\n
Governor:<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong>Tim Walz deserves to be tossed out on his well-padded posterior, but I suspect he and Peggy Flanagan will survive. Scott Jensen ran a decent campaign but it’s difficult to overcome all paid advertising from Alida Messinger and the free advertising from the Esme Murphys of the local media.<\/p>\n Secretary of State:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>Steve Simon is a smooth operator and Kim Crockett is not. Should those traits matter? No, but they do. Simon wins.<\/p>\n Attorney General:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>We have had the DFL Lucys pull this football away before. Recent polling suggests Keith Ellison is in trouble and that Jim Schultz is leading. Do you believe it? I don’t, but I sincerely hope I’m wrong.<\/p>\n Auditor:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>If the Republicans are allowed to win a statewide office, it will likely be this one. Republican Ryan Wilson has run a fine campaign and you can’t spell\u00a0blah<\/em> without DFLer Julie Blaha. The auditor has limited power but a committed auditor can at least turn over a few rocks the DFL would prefer to keep stationary. Wilson wins.<\/p>\n CD-2:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>While there are 8 congressional districts in Minnesota, apparently only the 2nd is being contested this year. We’ve seen dozens, maybe hundreds of ads featuring the odious incumbent, Angie Craig, and her rival Tyler Kistner. It’s been a nasty race and Craig has serious money behind her. She’s vulnerable because of redistricting, but it’s not clear to me that Kistner has made the sale. A left wing veteran’s group has also run some stolen valor ads in the final weekend that may affect the outcome; I have not been able to determine if their claims are accurate, but if Kistner loses, that last-minute attack might make the difference. As an aside, I really wish we’d seen Republicans make more of an effort in CD-3, where it’s been entirely too easy for Dean Phillips.<\/p>\n Elsewhere:\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Control of the House and Senate are at stake and the deep unpopularity of the Democrats will almost certainly mean Congress will be in Republican hands in 2023. A few guesses on races in other states:<\/p>\n Wisconsin:\u00a0<\/em>while the population and demographics of Wisconsin are similar to Minnesota, Wisconsin is not a blue state. Milwaukee and Madison are lefty enclaves, but their overall population is less than 40% of the total population, while the Twin Cities are about 60% of the total population here. As a result, it is easier for Republicans to win. Ron Johnson, the incumbent Republican senator, is a bit on the crusty side, but he’s a smart, effective campaigner and looks to be a good bet to win against his opponent, Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, a gladhander in the Hakeem Jeffries\/Barack Obama style, but less effective. In the governor’s race, Republican challenger Tim Michels is also a bit crusty, but the fluke incumbent governor, Democrat Tony Evers, is an ineffective milquetoast. Look for the Republicans to win both.<\/p>\n Arizona: <\/em>Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor, is a star. She was a television news personality for many years in the Phoenix market and she has outstanding communication skills. She also has an incredibly ineffective opponent, Katie Hobbs, who refused to debate and tried to hide from Lake. It didn’t work. Lake will win easily. Will her popularity be sufficient to pull the Republican challenger for Senate, Blake Masters, over the top in his race against incumbent Democrat Mark “Astronaut Boy” Kelly? I am guessing yes.<\/p>\n Pennsylvania:\u00a0<\/em>The senate race in Pennsylvania has been getting nonstop coverage. The seat is open because the incumbent Republican, Pat Toomey, is retiring. The two candidates are Democrat John Fetterman, a hulking slacker with a penchant for wearing Carhartt hoodies, against Republican Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor best known for years of appearances on Oprah Winfrey. Fetterman is an absurd candidate in any event, a fake tough guy who ran a decrepit Pittsburgh suburb into the ground. More importantly, he also had a major stroke earlier in the year and it’s evident he has a difficult time understanding or communicating without a wall of teleprompters. Oz seemed like a bit of dilettante, but he’s taken the campaign seriously and has made significant inroads by (a) understanding the issues and (b) not being brain damaged. As has been well established, the Democrats are well versed in running campaigns for people who are enfeebled, but selling Fetterman has been difficult. The question is whether Fetterman’s obvious defects are enough to sell a sufficient portion of the electorate to pull the lever for Oz, especially since any Republican in Pennsylvania has to overcome the historically dubious voting patterns in Philadelphia.\u00a0 My guess is Oz squeaks by.<\/p>\n Georgia:\u00a0<\/em>Two races here — a rematch in the governor’s race between incumbent Brian Kemp and celebrity challenger Stacey Abrams, who spent the last four years proclaiming she had the election stolen from her. By tomorrow, she won’t be able to make that claim, as Kemp is cruising to victory. Meanwhile, in the senate race incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock is battling former Georgia Bulldog (and Minnesota Viking) Herschel Walker, who has managed to overcome a lot of ridicule to potentially take the lead. Kemp could pull Walker over the top; if not, it’s likely the race will go to a runoff in December, which Walker would likely win.<\/p>\n Bottom line:<\/em><\/strong> the DFL remains too powerful to lose here in Minnesota, but elsewhere it’s going to be a tough night for Democrats. Those are my predictions. I also think the House will go about 237-198 for the Republicans, while the Senate will be 53-47. And then the fun begins. Place your predictions in the comments!<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It’s finally Election Day and we can all breathe easier now that we won’t have to see Angie Craig’s alternating rictus grin\/contorted face of rage multiple times a day on television, social media and other media. But will we see Craig going forward? While I sincerely hope not, it’s difficult to know. So let’s hazard […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":358,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[427,2,189,155,320,72,434],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83829","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-22","category-minnesota-politics","category-minnesotas-ministry-of-truth","category-mn-congressional","category-mndfl","category-mngop","category-mr-d"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83829","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/358"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=83829"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83829\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83836,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83829\/revisions\/83836"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=83829"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=83829"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=83829"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}