{"id":83663,"date":"2022-10-21T10:51:55","date_gmt":"2022-10-21T15:51:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=83663"},"modified":"2022-10-21T11:16:09","modified_gmt":"2022-10-21T16:16:09","slug":"16-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=83663","title":{"rendered":"16 Years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

2006. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That’s how long it’s been since I’ve seen a poll – any <\/em>poll generally considered reputable – that showed a GOP statewide candidate, a Governor, Attorney General, Auditor or Secretary of State – ahead in a race before an election. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’ll come back to that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

A few weeks back, my NARN colleague Jack Tomczak and I were invited to speak at a Liberty Tea Party Patriots<\/a> meeting. The invite came right after the Survey USA poll, right after the State Fair, that showed Scott Jensen down by 18 points. It was a dismal couple of weeks to be a Republican. The organizers wanted someone to help put the poll in context. Jack lives and breathes that stuff, and I have done a little dabbling on the subject<\/a> as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the intervening weeks between the SUSA poll and a Trafalgar poll that showed the governor’s race at five points<\/a>, things got a little <\/em>brighter – a poll with a history of measuring Republican turnout adequately accurately showed us losing a little less badly than Jeff Johnson in 2018. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So when the meeting came around, Jack pretty much had the line of the evening. I’ll paraphrase it: if you’re looking for a poll that shows Jensen leading? There is none. The only way to fix that is to get out there and work like hell to change that by election day<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And he was right. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And he still is. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

The good news: another Alphanews Trafalgar Poll shows Jensen ahead by half a point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bad news: An Alphanews Trafalgar Poll shows Jensen ahead by half a point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I’ll explain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Special Sauce: <\/strong>It’s a Trafalgar Poll, sponsored by a right-leaning news organization. A DFLer might squawk “Hah! It’s a conservative-leaning poll sponsored by a conservative propaganda mill! OF COURSE they show Jensen leading!”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alphanews is indeed Minnesota’s main conservative-leaning daily news source. But dismissing Trafalgar because “it’s Republican” is just as intellectually dishonest as dismissing Survey USA or PPP or Quinnipiac because they’re Democratic. Are the facts presented right, or are they wrong? That’s the only question that matters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let’s focus on facts, not parties, for a moment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trafalgar was also pretty much the only poll that showed Trump with a shot at winning in 2016; they called the much better-than-expected showing for the GOP in Congress in 2020. The theory is that whatever methodological “special sauce” (to borrow David Brauer’s term) Trafalgar brings to the table that helps them to measure Republicans, who seem to be stubbornly undercounted by Survey USA and 538 and the like, might give this poll a little extra credibility. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pollsters’ special sauce is a little like boy-band popularity; it comes and goes fast. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remember John Zogby? He was the “It” boy of the 2000 race. Whatever his <\/em>special sauce was, it hit the mark in the Bush\/Gore race. But thet was a long time ago; By 2008, Zogby was background noise; he still does polling, but the results rarely seem to track observed reality. His special sauce hit its shelf date. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rasmussen? They nailed 2004, and stayed relevant through most of the decade. They’re still out there – but nobody’s called him the best in the business in quite some time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nate Silver and 538? Quinnipiac? SUSA? Each of them went through a period as the “it” poll. And just as surely as New Edition handed off to Bell Biv Devote, to Boys 2 Men, and thence to New Kids on the Block, then Backstreet Boys and NSYNC to One Direction to BTS, every few cycles brings a new “it” pollster. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trafalgar was “it” in ’16 and ’20. They didn’t get a lot of credit for it in the media, since Trafalgar brought them bad news of Republican strength. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do they still have their special sauce? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’ll know two weeks from Tuesday, I guess. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

So what does the poll actually say?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Courtesy AlphaNews<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Half a point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there are 3.9% worth of voters polling for four third-parties, all of them somewhere left of center: the remains of the “Independence” party, Jesse Ventura’s vanity organization, which was and remains moderate-libertarian left, the two legal weed parties (mostly libertarian left) and of course the Socialist Workers. Will the Democrats in those parties come “home” to the DFL to beat back the Red horde? DFLers tend to fall into line after they get their rebellions streaks out of the way. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And there are another 3.9% undecided. Toward whom will they <\/em>break?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, one hint comes further down in the poll:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Presuming, as always, that Trafalgar’s methodology is sound<\/em>, Biden is not polling well in Minnesota. One suspects that in most cases it’s due to inflation, crime, fuel prices, stagflation and oncoming war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Minnesota being Minnesota, you have to figure some of the disapproval is from the left. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still – it may point to a lack of enthusiasm among Democrat voters to turn out for Walz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Undercards<\/strong>: All qualifications about special sauce aside? The other Constitutional Office races might prompt some optimism, if I were more susceptible to it:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here’s the AG race:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A five point margin with 4.5% undecided? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If – as always – accurate, that might explain Ellison’s drive to slap a coat of “tough on crime” <\/a>paint over his “Anti”-fa frenching past. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

State Auditor?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The only candidate who was straight up leading in the September Trafalgar poll, added a point to his margin – with six points of Pot Party candidates, and nearly 10% still undecided. I’m a little less sanguine than the numbers might warrant; this is the lowest profile race of the bunch. All those undecideds – the ones that vote, anyway – will most likely follow the top of the ticket. The question is, who is the top of the ticket – Tim Walz, or Joe Biden?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Secretary of State: Kim Crockett is a good personal acquaintance. Say what you will about the campaign she’s run – the DFL has certainly put money into running against her<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if Trafalgar’s right, there might be a reason for that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

All that money – millions and millions of dollars from Progressive plutocrats. Steve Simon is actually having to put money into TV ads of his own – something I don’t recall seeing in any systematic way, ever<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And this – presuming, as always, Trafalgar’s secret sauce is valid – is what they got for it. two points, with almost nine undecided. And those nine will likely break toward the top of the ticket, whoever that is. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And I don’t recall even seeing a Kim Crockett ad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

So – the good news: Presuming Trafalgar is right, there is hope. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bad news: Presuming Trafalgar is right,, it’s a razor-thin margin, and the Governor and Constitutional Officer races are going to depend heavily on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  • Whether Progs “come home” to the DFL from the weed parties, and <\/li>
  • Which way “undecideds” break, and<\/li>
  • How much effect Bidens apparent <\/em>unpopularity in Minnesota drags the DFL ticket, and overcomes any corruption that might exist in the metro. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Either way, Jack was right. If you care about Minnesota not collapsing further, and you’re not volunteering time or money for a candidate, statewide or legislative? What the hell are you waiting for? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    2006. That’s how long it’s been since I’ve seen a poll – any poll generally considered reputable – that showed a GOP statewide candidate, a Governor, Attorney General, Auditor or Secretary of State – ahead in a race before an election. We’ll come back to that. A few weeks back, my NARN colleague Jack Tomczak […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[427],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-22"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83663","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=83663"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83663\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83673,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83663\/revisions\/83673"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=83663"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=83663"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=83663"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}