{"id":83114,"date":"2022-08-16T09:05:40","date_gmt":"2022-08-16T14:05:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=83114"},"modified":"2022-08-16T09:05:40","modified_gmt":"2022-08-16T14:05:40","slug":"california-in-the-rear-view-mirror","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=83114","title":{"rendered":"California in the rear-view mirror"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

California residents continue to vote with their feet. From this NYT article<\/a> in May,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the second time in two years, the California Department of Finance has reported a drop in the state\u2019s population.

California lost 117,552 residents last year, driven largely by the Covid death toll and a sharp drop in foreign immigration. This followed a slightly bigger decline in 2020, when the state lost 182,083 residents \u2014 the first time in more than a century that California got smaller.

The latest data is further evidence that California, whose identity has been tied to expansive growth going back to the Gold Rush days, is now a state of stagnant growth. That has already resulted in the state losing a congressional seat for the first time in its 170-year history.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This City Journal article<\/a> found that since 2000, California saw a net loss of over 2.6 million people. Many of those are taxpayers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The comforting tale that only the old, bitter, and uneducated are moving out simply does not withstand scrutiny. An analysis of IRS data through 2019 confirms that increasing domestic migration is not dominated by the youngest or oldest households. Between 2012 and 2019, tax filers under 26 years old constituted only 4 percent of net domestic outmigrants. About 77 percent of the increase came among those in their prime earning years of 35 to 64. In 2019, 27 percent of net domestic migrants were aged 35 to 44, while 21 percent were aged 55 to 64.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

As an unscientific experiment, I looked up U-Haul rates for a 10′ truck, picking up on September 6, both leaving and going to California, with Texas and Florida as the other ends of the trip.

from<\/strong> Los Angeles, California…

Los Angeles to Dallas – $2,701
Los Angeles to Miami – $4,416

to<\/strong> Los Angeles, California…

Dallas to Los Angeles – $1,296
Miami to Los Angeles – $2,760


from<\/strong> San Francisco, California…

San Francisco to Dallas – $3,350
San Francisco to Miami – $4,902

to<\/strong> San Francisco, California…

Dallas to San Francisco – $1,462
Miami to San Francisco – $3,065


It’s 60-100% more expensive leaving California than going to California. What might that say about demand in California and which direction trucks are going, and where they’re staying?

The tech and entertainment industries can survive longer because so many of their dollars come from outside the state, but as crime and lawlessness and leftist policies drive out more and more people, eventually the California tax base won’t support the status quo. Then we can sit back with some popcorn and watch the fireworks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

California residents continue to vote with their feet. From this NYT article in May, For the second time in two years, the California Department of Finance has reported a drop in the state\u2019s population. California lost 117,552 residents last year, driven largely by the Covid death toll and a sharp drop in foreign immigration. This […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":273926,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[418],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blue-fragility"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/273926"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=83114"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83114\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83117,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83114\/revisions\/83117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=83114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=83114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=83114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}