Rationalization Du Jour

So the economy’s in the crapper and you’re a worried Democrat? CNN has found the silver lining:

All of this could pose problems for Biden and Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections.
But if there is any consolation for Biden, the market implosion during the early stages of his presidency is not as bad as those experienced by some of his predecessors, according to data from CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall.
The market plunged 16.5% in the first 510 days of Ronald Reagan’s presidency, which was also a period of historically high inflation. Stocks were down 25% in the early part of George W. Bush’s presidency, as the market was in the midst of the dot-com meltdown and struggled to recover in the aftermath of 9/11. But both Reagan and George W. Bush wound up being re-elected.
Meanwhile, stocks soared more than 20% early in both George H.W. Bush’s and Donald Trump’s tenures in the Oval Office. Neither was elected to a second term.

Reagan had principles, a plan, and crucially Paul Volcker working with him. W, for what it’s worth, had a war and craven opposition. Biden has nothing except long knives sharpening in the background. 

 

67 thoughts on “Rationalization Du Jour

  1. JD, low interest rates are the problem. But so is printing money and sending it to people. Shutting down the production of oil-based products (in all its forms) has both a first as well as second order effect on prices. Related to this are those sanctions on Russia which are rebounding badly and raising prices. Printing more money, $40B, and sending it ostensibly to Ukraine, but mostly to the military industrial complex in the US… I’ve probably missed a thing or two or three.

    This is a synergistic fuck-up of massive proportions created by the DemoCommies.

  2. Jimmy Carter must be grinning ear to ear these days. Pedo Joe will take the title as the worst president ever away from him.

  3. That would be Wilson, boss, not Carter.

    And jdm, you also have to consider third, fourth and fifth-order effects. I see CT is raising taxes on diesel. I guess they expect all their deliveries to be done by carrier pigeons.

  4. you also have to consider third, fourth and fifth-order effects

    I didn’t want to be greedy.

  5. The Daily Fail:
    Biden threatens oil companies with ’emergency powers’ if they don’t increase supply: Slams their ‘historically high profit margins’ while families see gas prices hit record highs above $5 per gallon
    Joe Biden sent a letter to seven of the biggest oil companies Wednesday demanding action to quell surging gas prices
    He is setting up an emergency meeting on the issue and asking for an explanation whether there has been a loss in oil refining capacity
    The president threatened to use ’emergency powers’ to take further action
    The administration continues to blame rising gas costs on the ‘Putin price hike’ resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and on greedy oil companies
    Biden claims oil refiners are purposefully not increasing production to meet the demand so they can charge more per gallon
    The average nationwide price of gas hit $5.00 for the first time ever on Saturday

    We have a moron for a president.
    I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 (I voted for Daryll Castle, Constitution Party) because I thought that Trump, if elected, would govern as a Jesse Ventura at a federal level. I was wrong, and proudly voted for Trump in 2020.
    Biden was never going to be a good president. At this point he is just an angry old man shouting at a cloud. His threat of using his “emergency powers” is empty. He has squandered his political capital. When he makes vocal threats, everyone knows that he will be crippled after the elections this Autumn, when his party loses the mid terms.
    All of this was predictable. Biden has had more than 4 decades in public office. His idiocy, his personality quirks were known. The Biden we have is the president the Dems voted for.

  6. Imagine the comedy of Biden asking Buttagieg if “whether there has been a loss in oil refining capacity,” LOL. Buttagieg, Biden’s hand selected transportation secretary, has no frikkin’ idea if their has been a loss in “refining capacity.”
    It is a joyous thing to see your political enemies in rout, lost in their own confusion, running away like dogs.
    Dems! Too bad you have demonstrated in Afghanistan that you don’t know anything about an “orderly retreat.”

  7. The Biden we have is the president the Dems cheated voted for. There fixed it for you, MP. You are welcome.

  8. ^ You know, jpa, that’s really true… I mean, I knew it but you rephrased it – reframed it, is what the smart people call it, I think – in a way that really hits the nail on the head.

  9. I’ve been trying to imagine what emergency powers Lesko Brandon could use to compel oil companies to produce more gasoline. Revoke permits so they can’t drill? How does that help? Audit the officers and directors, taking a page from the Obama Playbook? How does that help? Send OSHA inspectors out to shut them down while they search everything with a fine-tooth comb? How does that help?

    I heard a congress critter suggested raising taxes so high it drives oil companies into bankruptcy. Okay, but how does that help?

    I’m thinking the only solution is to send the FBI to arrest the officers’ wives and children, taking them into custody at a secret location, to be tortured until oil companies spin straw into gold. No, wait, spin sand into oil. Or something.

    At least that would be consistent with running the country like Venezuela or Zimbabwe, which seems to be this administration’s role model.

  10. JD, he threatened to invoke “War Emergency Power”. Like I said in my earlier post, taking a page from Lil’ Castro.

  11. He’s going to send National Guard cooks and Airborne Rangers to run oil refineries better than the present employees can run them? He’s going to commandeer 3M and order them to retool their Scotch Tape factory to make gasoline? I just don’t see how that helps me at the pump.

    Wait – maybe he meant the War Powers Act, which allows the President to invade another country without seeking approval from Congress for a few months. And isn’t Lesko Brandon planning a little trip to the oil producing region of the Middle East?

    Holy cats, we’re invading Saudi Arabia to seize their oil! I hope nobody gets hurt. It’d be a shame to see Code Pink marching around again, waving their “No Blood for Oil” signs. On the bright side, we’d start World War III which ought to snap the economy out of a recession, same as the last one.

    Maybe there is a plan, after all?

  12. What I like most is that the “exorbitant” profits the oil companies are reaping are….scaling almost precisely with the price of gasoline. It’s as if companies understand something about ROI and such. And I see that Biden is doing just about everything but….opening up production.

    The guy makes Carter look downright competent in comparison.

  13. Greatest argument rationale Ev-ah:

    Me: X is the answer
    Someone else: You’re crazy; X is not the answer! What on God’s green earth is your reasoning for saying that??
    Me: prove me wrong. HA! I showed you …

  14. There is no soft landing, much like inflation not being transitory. If this Fed meeting came with a 75 basis point increase and you had an 8.6% inflation rate, and now it’s going to accelerate beyond where we were to 9% — what do you think is going to happen in July?

    In short, Powell is forecasting 9% CPI in June and 9-10% in July, and further hikes with a higher peak FF rate.

    Mathematically these are YOY figures and the largest contributor was the enormous fuel price YOY percentage increase. As the current base after enormous gain goes to the previous base gradually, how persistent it will be is a question of how persistent it will be YOY percentage-wise.

  15. “Print $ = everything up
    reverse printing = everything down”

    First, contradicts your other posts I linked, so are there three of you sharing one ID and posting from different crib sheets? Sounds confusing.

    Second, your 12:54 is pithy but I don’t think it’s correct. If the Fed prints up a million $100 bills and dump them across the nation by helicopter, the money supply is inflated and Milton Friedman is back in charge. That part is true.

    But ‘reverse printing”? What does that mean? How does it work? Shutting off the printing press doesn’t recapture the bills in circulation. And if we don’t get those bills out of circulation to reduce the money supply, how can we bring down prices?

    Able catches a $100 bill dropped by helicopter and gives it to Baker to do lawn work. Baker spends it at Retail Store Charlie, which deposits it in Bank of Delta. Does Bank of Delta mail that $100 bill back to the Feds to be burned? If not, how does the money supply contract so that prices fall?

    Ah, but nobody has $100 bills anymore, it’s all ones-and-zeros in bank accounts. Yeah, but the problem remains. I received my $2,400 Covid check, I deposited it in the bank, I have 2,400 ones-and-zeros to spend on beer and skittles, which pushes up the price of beer and skittles. How’s the government get those ones-and-zeros out of my bank account to bring prices back down?

    The only way I can see to recapture the money is taxes. Is that what you advocate, massive tax increases to leave people poorer so they don’t have as much money to spend, and which will therefore bring prices down?

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