So the pre-election polling saying the electorate was going toward Biden in landslide lots was wrong?

Who could have possibly figured that out?

Oh, yeah – anyone that’s been reading this blog for the past ten years.

There are three possible explanations:

1. Evolution! – The pollster’s craft hasn’t caught up with the “new normal”, in a society where people legitimately fear being “canceled”, losing jobs, social standing and being targeted for violence because of their beliefs.

That is simultaneously possible, and not mutually eclusive

2. Incompetence! – The pollsters absorbed the lessons of 2016, where they actually did a little better than they did this year…

…and learned nothing.

3. Never Ascribe to Incompetence What Can Be Chalked Up To Malice – I’m going to present three facts and a conjecture:

Fact 1 – On December 1, 2016, representatives of the New York Times and Washington Post newsrooms went on WNYC radio’s “On the Media“ program (syndicated on NPR) and said, In as many words, that was time to change the rules of journalism. It was time to move past “passing the facts on to people and letting them make up their own minds” to “Denormalizing Donald Trump“.

Fact 2 – in 1986, a UCLA psychology professor, Dr. Mehrabian, showed the existence of a “bandwagon effect“; when polls showed that a candidate had no chance of winning, “swing“ voters tended to stay home or vote for someone else.

Fact 3 – for the past 30 years, the Star Tribune “Minnesota Poll” has had a fairly clear pattern; the closer a race ended up being, the more wildly distorted pre-election polling numbers were. For example, they showed Tim Pawlenty, Norm Coleman and Tom Emmer getting blown out just before the election. All three races ended up being famously close. On the other hand, they tend to report blowouts pretty accurately; they had Amy Klobuchar and Kurt Bills pretty much dead on.

Conjecture: It’s not an “accident”, or a learning error, that polling predicting a landslide up until election day was completely wrong.


47 thoughts on “Motivations

  1. Listened to Jonah Goldberg’s #nevertrumper podcast on Ricochet last week.
    He explained, with distinct contempt, that all those foolish people who dismissed the polls showing Biden with a double-digit lead were idiots. Sure, they were wrong in 2016, but not that wrong, and they had learned from their mistakes. The 2020 polls took the “Trump factor” into account.
    Some people never tire of being wrong.

  2. 3. Never Ascribe to Incompetence What Can Be Chalked Up To Malice

    I’ve been saying this for years. I refuse to believe leftist operatives are stupid. They do what they do with a plan, with purpose, and with a goal. Because they are not bound by a sense of decorum or morals (the ends justify the means), they often succeed. Also, the fact that they have no moral revulsion to not being an economic producer and are willing to live off the largesse of publicly funded or non-profit organizations, aids them greatly. The rest of us have to work 40 or more hours per week at our day jobs and can’t spend all day every day working for the cause.

  3. Massive vote fraud in Wisconsin. Trump got 200,000 more votes than 2016 when he won it, but they are trying to make us believe he lost it this year.

    Several precincts already have more ballots than registered voters.

  4. I just left the MN SOS website. Total votes for president were 3,221,545. On the same website, I looked at registered voters. Now, the info is from earlier in the year vs day of, but it’s a starting point. 3,588,563 was the number – and in contrast to our population of 5,700,670 that’s a pretty % of registered voters. 56.51% of the population. Oh, but as I look back as the SOS site, I see that as of 7am on voting day, 3,579,318. So, lower than the previous statement, but I’ll stay with higher number to account for possible same day registration.

    I plugged those into a spreadsheet, and find that we had 89.77% of registered voters chime in on Tuesday. 78.77% was the previous best in 2004. What an amazing turnout! Only 370,000 or so of registered didn’t vote. Man, what a civic minded state we live in!

  5. Malice. Pure, unadulterated malice. You think SloJoe misspoke when he said, and I quote: that his team created “the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics”? We are watching the fruits of that organization.

  6. JPA – that’s what started me on that, but I went to the “official source” since I’ll also be sharing this with my liberal friends.

    What has me wondering is that 90%. When I was in the Army, we would occasionally have something required for 100% of Soldiers. Weekly, we’d have to brief our % to the brigade commander. And, we could never hit 100% without some fudging. People in the hospital, on leave, away at training, AWOL… So in the Army, where the government basically owns you, we have difficulty in getting 90% on required training. And here (even with early/mail in voting) in MN, we managed to get that. I’d say bravo to the voter fraud department here in MN. They figured out that going to 100% of voters turned out gives the game away. Time to give lessons to the other northern states.

  7. 100% is a statistical impossibility when it comes to populations with multiple variables.

  8. “Calls for reforming law enforcement were too extreme and cost us votes, we need to back away from that!” ~ Democrats

    They got something wrong, and it wasn’t being insufficiently progressive.

  9. A mail carrier who works for a post office in Traverse City, Michigan blew the whistle Wednesday on what he called a “sketchy” directive from his supervisor. “We were issued a directive this morning to collect any ballots we find in mail boxes, collection boxes—just outgoing mail in general—separate them at the end of the day so they could hand stamp them with the previous day’s date,” the whistleblower told Project Veritas’ James O’Keefe. “Today is November 4th, for clarification,” he added. All states require mail-in ballots to be postmarked on or before Nov. 3 to be accepted.

    Nothing to see here… move along sheoples… ALL votes need to be counted.

  10. Elections officials in Michigan and Wisconsin refused to explain Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s sudden and dramatic vote tally increase that occurred in both states Wednesday morning. Michigan and Wisconsin state officials warned against misinformation being shared online, but wouldn’t comment on specific vote tranches that appeared to show former Vice President Joe Biden suddenly receiving more votes than President Donald Trump.

    Explanation? We don’t need no explanation! Because™

  11. Gotta love this! And sorry for spamming, but it does have to do with unchecked malice and consequences:

    Several counties in Illinois on Tuesday passed nonbinding resolutions by wide margins to create a new state, separate from Chicago and Cook County. Questions posed to voters in various counties asked if they should join with others outside of Cook County to create a new state. In Clay County, nearly 80 percent of voters approved the question. Nearly 73 percent of Shelby County voters approved, while 63 percent of Christian County voters did so and in Crawford County, nearly 76 percent of the voters said yes. A group tracking the movement, called Red State Secession, counted 24 counties that approved it, with most votes being between 70 percent to 80 percent in favor.

  12. MICHIGAN POLL WATCHER: Ballots Were Turned In With No Names On Them

    Remember, HAVE to count EVERY vote!

  13. I have a big sign in my truck back window; red letters. It says “The Democrats are stealing this election in plain sight. Don’t let them do it! Get mad; Get Loud”

    I get a lot of thumbs up and horn toots, but I got what I was after when I went to pick up a load of steel for a welding project I’m doing (wrought iron gate).

    A guy, black, was gathering my order, and he asked “Why do you think they’re cheating”

    I said I’d give him one reason that is a matter of public record. The GOP had to get a judge in Philly to sign a decree ordering the Democrats counting ballots to allow GOP Reps to witness. It’s already state law, but the Dems refused to obey it.

    After they got the order, the state appealed it, and the counters still refused to allow the GOP in. If they’re not cheating, what’s the answer?

    He said “I didn’t know that. That’s not right. I see your point.”

    That’s winning.

  14. Pingback: In The Mailbox: 11.05.20 : The Other McCain

  15. Gee, Mitch, where is the fraud in MN, the fraud you said had to be compressed into 1 day/

    Ah, no fraud…got it. So much for the wide-spread fraud conspiracy, or was the DFL left out of the fix?

    Also, ICU bed use in Texas 1700, NY State 268… factoring in TX being 50% larger..NY would need to have about 1100 to equal TX, is 268 more or less than 1100?

    You owe me a quarter and you owe your readers an apology for claiming there WOULD be election fraud for which you have no proof and no one has alleged.

  16. Hey, padded cell boi. Drop that pop tart and ponder this:

    44 states managed to hold credible, elections and tally the vote in 1 day with no trouble.

    6 states orchestrated an epic clusterfuck, the likes of which have never been seen outside 3rd world shithole countries.

    Its a.mess that will require lawyers and judges and angry crowds of outraged Americans to untangle. Guess which 6 states?

    Maybe, from now on we need to call in UN observers from Haiti and the Congo to ensure a fair vote in leftist shithole states, eh?

  17. Oh hey, padded cell boi…check this out.

    Chinese agents in Virginia have refined the “trunk ballot” technique you slags invented in MN.

    Now, ballot stashing is done on a thumb drive instead of driving around in a holding pattern with a trunk full of paper ballots. Works like a charm.

    Minnesota reprobates got punked…you mad bro?

  18. Democrat P-Boy correctly points out that Democrat Secretary of State Simon hasn’t found that Democrat Ilhan Omar committed the ballot fraud shown in the video, so Democrat Keith Ellison won’t investigate and Democrat Mike Freeman doesn’t need to prosecuted any Democrats for cheating in the election to help Democrats get elected all the way down the ballot.

    Well, I guess that settles it. No fraud here.

  19. The only problems with Trump’s suit, according to the judge, is that it was based on hearsay, brought the wrong party to court, couldn’t give names of any of the people or locations they said broke the law.

  20. Pingback: No Fraud Here | Things to Remember, Things to Cherish

  21. Anyone hoping for a peaceful transition has never had to pull a toddler out of a Chuck E. Cheese.

  22. there has NEVER™ been any voter fraud… Exhibit #umpteen

  23. Stages of Democrat gas-lighting:

    There was no fraud in this election. Okay, yes, there was some fraud, but it was so small that it didn’t affect the result. Alright, alright, there was massive fraud which altered the outcome; but it was justified because Trump is so bad.

    Right now, we’re partway between Stage 1 and Stage 2. Apparently, Democrats are huge Monty Python fans: “There is no cannibalism in the British Navy. Absolutely none, and when I say none, I mean there is a certain amount, more than we are prepared to admit, but all new ratings are warned that if they wake up in the morning and find any toothmarks at all anywhere on their bodies, they’re to tell me immediately so that I can immediately take every measure to hush the whole thing up.”

  24. All the Secretaries of State in all remaining undecided states, Republican and Democrat, agree that there is no fraud and that the ballots are being honestly counted.

    Trump and his followers are accusing Secretaries of State, poll workers, election boards, local governments and the maids cleaning the floors at polling places of engaging in a massive, coordinated effort to rig the election. Really? Who’s the ringleader? Were the poll workers sworn to secrecy? Where do the fake ballots come from? How was everyone trained in this special espionage?

    Trump and his followers are not only insulting patriotic volunteers who only want to help, he’s insulting the entire system and the intelligence of the American people. Trump’s whining, fraudulent statements proved once again that the only issue in the election is getting rid of Trump. That’s it. We’ll deal with everything else after January 20.

  25. Ah, I see the Shocked. Shocked! that one would think there’s “a massive, coordinated effort to rig the election” gambit being used. And with a touch of patriotic fervor. You forgot that one, JD.

  26. Barack Obama was born in Kenya
    Barack Obama is a Muslim
    The climate is not changing and the world’s scientists are all conspiring to lie about it
    Donald Trump did not pay Stormy Daniels
    Covid-19 is a Hoax
    Covid-19 is no worse than the flu
    Donald Trump had no business dealings in Russia
    The explosion in Beirut was an attack
    Donald Trump did not lose the 2016 popular vote by 3M voters
    3M Hispanics committed vote fraud in 2016 and ALL kept silent about it
    The Saudi prince did not order the killing of Jamal Khashoggi
    The Russians didn’t interfere in the election
    Donald Trump didn’t ask for a quid pro quo from the Ukrainian government to get desperately needed military aid
    Hilary Clinton was directly responsible for the deaths in Benghazi
    Mary Landrieu won her seat in Louisiana due to vote fraud
    Al Franken won his seat in MN due to vote fraud
    There is organized, systemic fraud all over the country, despite any proof of the same, and it is only EVER committed by Democrats

    And now, your most recent big lie..
    Joe Biden only beat Donald Trump because of massive vote fraud, Donald Trump did not lose by 4M votes, 100,000 election officials around the country all conspired to lie, and/or 4M illegal immigrants did and kept silent about it

    When you consider your next order of tin foil, order a LOT. A HUGE amount, you need it. Every one of the above conspiracy bat-shit crazy theories has been investigated and either debunked or found to be lacking utterly in evidence (outside the election results which would require a conspiracy on the scale unheard of in human history AND silence by those same people, universally). This list was off the top of my head, it could have been dozens of crack pot, made-up, fact-less, evidence-less conspiracy theories longer.
    Get a clue, you lost, no amount of lying makes that different. We (the Dems) peacefully ceded power in 2016- show some class, act like adults or even just people who love this democracy enough to respect the will of the people. Equally, show some respect for the work of many thousands of people who worked HARD and honestly to ensure integrity because they HAVE integrity, Repubs and Dems alike, rather than spitting on their word/names/work. So, just as we did in 2000, man-up and move-on. Cease destroying our faith in our elections for when you do THAT, you destroy our democracy. For someone who claims to love it, you certainly have a very poor way of showing it. Defending your conduct by saying “No No, It’s ME who loves it, that’s why I won’t stand for this fraud” is a cop out or even worse a corrupt response, show your evidence and prove it in front of an impartial judge, or stop with the unproven lies.

  27. I wish the AP would call Pennsylvania. The destroying of the suburbs is going to take a long time and the sooner we get started on it the better. 🤔

  28. Yeah, Paddyboy, the fact that it’s always cities and states run by Democrats who seem to have the most problems counting votes, and the fact that their “mistakes” always seem to benefit the Democrats, means absolutely nothing about the question of whether there is anything amiss in the process.

    And of course, the fact that the Democrats are changing election law via regulators (illegally in many cases), and taking every request to examine voter rolls and records to high courts, does not possibly mean they’re trying to hide something.

    Nope, we’ll stick with “we didn’t find what we weren’t looking for”, and “if anyone doubts what we say, we’ll just insult them and remind them that we didn’t find what we weren’t looking for.”

  29. We (the Dems) peacefully ceded power in 2016 – show some class, act like adults

    The compartmentalization is strong in this one.

  30. Trump’s delusional ramblings yesterday were a worldwide embarrassment. When are republican leaders going to step forward and have “the talk”?

  31. Huh, Emery, I was wondering the same thing about some of the things Biden has said. Obviously “the talk” never occurred there, either. Evidently “the talk” also never occurred with a former Senator and Secretary of State who had classified information on her unsecured private server (and a host of other ethical issues), either. Huh. Why not, Emery?

    But that said, again, why is it that it’s always the Democratic controlled cities and states that have these problems? The majority of precincts manage to count their ballots on election day and report a couple of hours after the polls close, and a quick look at the difficulty–feeding the 500-1000 ballots into the machine and checking the few that don’t scan well shouldn’t take that long–suggests that whatever they’re doing, it’s not just impartially counting ballots.

    That’s all the more obvious when you see these same districts evicting legally required poll watchers from the minority party. Huh, Emery, what are they hiding?

    Somehow Trump’s comments don’t seen that out of line when you consider how polls are supposed to work.

  32. 👆Pretty weak sauce there BB. Send it back up to rewrite and add a dash of Benghazi and for the knockout— Hunter’s laptop. 😂

  33. The worldwide embarrassment here was the failure of the polls in 2016 & 2020 to even get close to forecasting the election outcome, while our “unbiased” media accepted the failed polling organizations as somehow being capable of making an accurate estimate of American political sentiment.
    If you are embarrassed by Trump (but, strangely, not by Biden), or the US, your choice is simple: move to some other country. Nothing is stopping you.
    I am nearly 60 years old, and I have never been ashamed of my country, or ashamed to be an American.

  34. You could try responding to the facts, Emery.

    Or maybe, you couldn’t. If the facts are weak sauce, you’re a vaccuum, and not the useful kind made by Hoover.

    Let’s ask the question again; why does it so consistently take certain Democrat-run districts so long to count the 500 to 1000 ballots cast in a given precinct? Can it really take several days to feed these through a scanner, or is something else going on in these precincts? Might that something else have something to do with why Republican poll watchers seem to be shown the door, in violation of the law, an awful lot while this process is going on?

    Glenn Reynolds has pointed out that in certain precincts in Milwaukee, turnout is up to 200%. Huh. Maybe it’s time to implement blockchain or some other system to make sure that these are actual people voting.

  35. Nope, no fraud. NEVER™

    A glitch in software used to tabulate ballots in Antrim County, Michigan caused at least 6,000 Republican votes to be counted as Democrat, according to Michigan GOP Chairwoman Laura Cox. The miscalculation, Cox said in a press conference, was first reported by a county clerk. A short investigation revealed that 47 counties in Michigan may have also suffered from a similar glitch with the same software, which could have caused some red counties to rake in a higher number of Democrat votes than usual.

  36. This is the most pathetic batch of reprobate trolls I’ve ever seen. Its like the recorded ejaculations in a Justin Bieber mosh pit.

    Evidently the Reprobate party up there has a real slim digital propaganda budget. I get that, but are blathering nit wits really the best they can Do?

    It’s embarrassing, tbh

  37. I’ve just been reading Angelo Codevilla. He argues that we’re in a cold civil war with our own plutocrats who believe that they are entitled to to power with the outcome in doubt.
    I don’t see the outcome as all that doubtful. The power centers are Democratically controlled cities. Let’s be frank. A couple dozen insurgents could turn off the power to Minneapolis/St Paul and make it stick for months if not years. Shut off the gas pipelines and our self appointed elites will be burning books & government regulations to keep warm. Where the food comes from will be equally problematic. No cell phones because there’s no power. No Internet. No TV. Things will get very miserable in very short order.

  38. That Pennsylvania case. The Trump lawyer eventually conceded that there were in fact a ‘non-zero’ number of Republican observers in the count.


    Got to be the stand out phrase of this contest.

    The man-baby kicked out by a non-zero margin.

    Happy weekend folks!

  39. NEVER™ foreevah!

    “Attorney General Ken Paxton today announced that his Election Fraud Unit assisted the Limestone County Sheriff and District Attorney in charging Kelly Reagan Brunner, a social worker in the Mexia State Supported Living Center (SSLC), with 134 felony counts of purportedly acting as an agent and of election fraud,”

  40. NEVER™ evah!

    so-called computer ‘glitch’ fix in one of Michigan’s counties has led to 6,000 votes switching from Joe Biden to President Trump. The Head of the Republican Party has asked for an additional 47 counties be recounted after the fix since these 47 counties also use the same Dominion software. A so-called computer glitch has been uncovered in Michigan today and it resulted in swapping 6,000 votes from Joe Biden to President Trump. [Snip for yseet] Dominion Software is used in 28 US states including ALL OF THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. The Dominion software “glitch” ONLY took votes from President Trump and Republicans.

  41. The Trump campaign has to support its claims with facts and evidence.

    Why aren’t alternative facts and alternative claims allowed in the courts? Surely this is discrimination against people who live in parallel universes and/or Internet/social media bubbles?

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